Buffett Indicator

Measure of stock market valuation

The Buffett indicator is a ratio that compares the total market value of all publicly traded stocks (Wilshire 5000) to the gross domestic product (GDP) of the US. The indicator was popularized by Warren Buffett, who has famously said that it is "the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment."

US market value / GDP

58% Overvalued

Current stock market valuation

The current GDP is $25.7 Trillion. The total market cap of US stocks is $40.6 Trillion. So according to the Warren Buffett indicator the market is currently 58% overvalued.

Intrest rates and other criticism of the Buffett indicator

Lower interest rates decrease the cost of capital, which means companies can invest more easily. Also, it pushes investors to invest in higher-risk assets like the stock market as other assets like the bond market have lower returns. Thus, in times with low interest rates, it might justify higher stock market valuations. There are other forces that have an impact on stock market valuations and that are not covered by the Buffett indicator, such as that the US GDP doesn't fully reflect the world economy wheras the stocks included in Wilshire 5000 do include certain international business activities.

Wilshire 5000

The Wilshire 5000 is a stock market index that includes almost every publicly traded stock in the United States.

View Warren Buffett portfolio →