Waste Connections Inc
WCN - Insider Information
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+ FollowMarket Cap$48.53B
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Earnings Call Q3 2026
October 22, 2026 - AI Summary
Q3 performance beat expectations; margin expanded despite diesel surge
- Revenue: $2.638B, +7.3% YoY (includes $53M from acquisitions net of divestitures).
- Solid waste organic: Core pricing +5.5%; fuel & material surcharges ~+1.3% (about $30M), reflecting higher diesel costs.
- Yields/volume: 4.3% average yield; unit volumes -1.2% YoY (improving sequentially by +70 bps vs Q2).
- Adjusted EBITDA: $895.8M, +7.9% YoY; adjusted EBITDA margin 34% (+20 bps YoY).
- Underlying margin expansion: +50 bps, but diesel created ~30 bps margin drag—management emphasized quick cost recovery.
2026 outlook increased (and implies a strong Q4 vs a tough comp)
- Full-year 2026 forecast raised to:
- Revenue ~ $10.09B
- Adjusted EBITDA ~ $3.345B (33.2% margin)
- Adjusted free cash flow: still on pace for ≥ $1.4B for the year (Q3 YTD FCF $1.09B).
- Implied Q4: Revenue ~ $2.52B; adjusted EBITDA margin ~33.3% (+20 bps, ex-fuel).
- Key assumption/challenge: no change in underlying trends, but fuel cost levels and the timing of fuel recovery remain an ongoing swing factor.
Volume/line-of-business mix showed resiliency; recyclables and RNG are key opportunities
- Landfill tons: +3% on rates +~4%; Q3 was the first in ~2 years where all three waste types improved YoY (MSW, C&D, special waste).
- Special waste: +7% YoY; C&D: +5% YoY—described as broad-based/lumpy but positive.
- E&P waste: continued ramp; ~+5% organic YoY (U.S. stronger; Permian rig count up ~10% since early year).
- Commodities: recycling revenue +12% YoY, with OCC values up ~35% vs year-end (OCC improvement cited as improving for 3 straight quarters); plastics weakness persisted.
- Renewable Natural Gas (RNG): landfill gas sales +35% YoY driven by new facilities and RIN values up ~10% to ~$2.50 average.
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$93.19
51.9% downside
Current Fair Value
51.9% downsideOvervalued by 51.9% based on the discounted cash flow analysis.
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Share Statistics
| Market cap | $48.53 Billion |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value | $58.63 Billion |
| Annual dividend | $1.44 |
| Dividend yield | 0.74% |
| Earnings per Share | $4.19 |
| Beta | 0.48 |
| Outstanding Shares | 251,338,542 |
Return
| Return on Equity | 14.38% |
|---|---|
| Return on Assets | 5.27% |
| Return on Invested Capital | 9.79% |
Valuation & Multiples
| P/E Ratio | 43.49 |
|---|---|
| PEG | 170.66 |
| Price to Sales | 4.97 |
| Price to Book Ratio | 6.26 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 5.9 |
| Enterprise Value to EBIT | 30.94 |
| Enterprise Value to Net Income | 51 |
| Total Debt to Enterprise | 0.17 |
| Debt to Equity | 1.29 |
Revenue Sources
No data
Last Earnings Call
Report Date
October 21, 2026
EPS
$1.58
Est. $1.52Revenue
$2.60 B
Est. $2.60 BNext Earnings Call
Expected Date
February 10, 2027
EPS Estimate
$1.40
Consensus analyst estimateRevenue Estimate
$2.49 B
Consensus analyst estimateInstitutional Put/Call Ratio
Compares institutional put options with call options. At 0.00, the ratio is below 1, so institutions hold more calls than puts.
| Put/Call Ratio | 0.0000▼ 66.02% |
|---|---|
| Total Calls | -▼ 100.00% |
| Total Puts | -▼ 100.00% |
Institutional Ownership
Holdings and activity of institutional investors.
| Ownership % | 10.70%▼ 74.34% |
|---|---|
| Total Invested | $4.26B▼ 87.98% |
| Investors Holding | 359▼ 507.00% |
About Waste Connections Inc
24,214 employees
CEO: Ronald J. Mittelstaedt
Waste Connections, Inc. is a prominent provider of comprehensive waste management services across the United States and Canada, specializing in the collection, transfer, disposal, and resource recovery of non-hazardous materials. The com...