Vistra Corp
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+ FollowMarket Cap$40.51B
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Earnings Call Q2 2026
August 7, 2026 - AI Summary
Strong Q2 performance; guidance reaffirmed
- Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA: $1.767B (≈+30% YoY, vs. ~$1.35B in Q2’25; generation ~$994M, retail ~$773M).
- Drivers: favorable hedging (avg realized prices ~+5% per MWh YoY), higher PJM capacity revenues, optimization of flexible gas run profile, restart of Martin Lake Unit 1, and Lotus assets contribution.
- 2026 guidance reaffirmed:
- Adjusted EBITDA: $6.8B–$7.6B
- Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth: $3.925B–$4.725B
- Management confidence: performance in 1H positions them to hit at/above midpoint.
2027 outlook: still positive but bias toward lower end of range
- 2027 Adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity range kept at: $7.4B–$7.8B, excluding Cogentrix and the Meta PPA premium.
- Reasoning:
- Headwind: ERCOT forward curves are meaningfully lower vs Oct. 31, 2025.
- Offsets: higher PJM prices, comprehensive hedging, and downside protection from nuclear PTC.
- Net view from CFO: offsets don’t fully offset ERCOT softness → expectation trending toward the lower end (without including Cogentrix/Meta).
Capital allocation: heavy shareholder returns + disciplined growth investment
- Forecast: >$10B available cash in 2026–2027.
- Shareholder payouts (equity holders): ~$3B via share repurchases + common & preferred dividends in 2026–2027.
- Buybacks highlight:
- Since Nov 2021: ~171M shares retired at ~$38 average cost.
- Remaining authorization: ~$1.2B, expected to be exhausted no later than end of 2027.
- Through Aug 3: >$6.5B returned via repurchases, ahead of prior target (≥$6B by year-end 2026).
- Growth investment plan: ~$4.5B–$5B accretive growth, including Cogentrix, Permian Peakers, PJM nuclear (Meta PPAs), Oak Hill 2 solar (investment-grade counterparty PPA), and Helix commitment.
- Balance sheet: achieved investment-grade from two major agencies; goal to reach mid-investment-grade at all three.
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$175.66
46.1% upside
Current Fair Value
46.1% upsideUndervalued by 46.1% based on the discounted cash flow analysis.
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Share Statistics
| Market cap | $40.51 Billion |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value | $59.87 Billion |
| Annual dividend | $0.91 |
| Dividend yield | 0.66% |
| Earnings per Share | $2.22 |
| Beta | 1.38 |
| Outstanding Shares | 336,846,562 |
Return
| Return on Equity | 40.48% |
|---|---|
| Return on Assets | 5.21% |
| Return on Invested Capital | 11.75% |
Valuation & Multiples
| P/E Ratio | 23.06 |
|---|---|
| PEG | -342.78 |
| Price to Sales | 2.56 |
| Price to Book Ratio | 7.52 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 3.75 |
| Enterprise Value to EBIT | 15.9 |
| Enterprise Value to Net Income | 26 |
| Total Debt to Enterprise | 0.33 |
| Debt to Equity | 3.61 |
Revenue Sources
No data
Last Earnings Call
Report Date
August 7, 2026
EPS Estimate
$1.61
Consensus analyst estimateRevenue Estimate
$5.46 B
Consensus analyst estimateNext Earnings Call
Expected Date
November 5, 2026
EPS Estimate
$2.89
Consensus analyst estimateRevenue Estimate
$7.15 B
Consensus analyst estimateInstitutional Put/Call Ratio
Compares institutional put options with call options. At 2.48, the ratio is above 1, so institutions hold more puts than calls. That is a more cautious stance.
| Put/Call Ratio | 2.4776▲ 130.60% |
|---|---|
| Total Calls | 116,000▼ 99.32% |
| Total Puts | 287,400▼ 98.56% |
Institutional Ownership
Holdings and activity of institutional investors.
| Ownership % | 3.97%▼ 80.54% |
|---|---|
| Total Invested | $1.86B▼ 95.92% |
| Investors Holding | 505▼ 1014.00% |
About Vistra Corp
5,365 employees
CEO: Curtis Morgan
