Vale S.A. - ADR
VALE - Insider Information
Get informed when a big investor buys or sells
+ FollowMarket Cap$48.65B
Close$
Earnings Call Q3 2026
October 30, 2026 - AI Summary
Iron ore ops: production down, sales stable; Serra Norte remains the key drag but “recoverable”
- Production: -6% YoY (mainly Serra Norte underperformance).
- Sales: 86.3m tonnes (slightly above last year), supported by S11D strength in the Southeastern system and sale of inventory built earlier.
- Why lower Serra Norte output: mechanical issues tied to start-up of 28 new autonomous trucks, rain-related lost days, and ore quality issues (higher manganese/alumina/clay clogging hoppers).
- What management expects next: by October operations were already ~15% higher daily output; 2027 expected “sideways” volumes at Serra Norte; by 2028 recovery expected driven by Serra Leste expansion (8m → 10m t) and a new ore body N3 (~6m t/yr) plus cave-related mitigations.
Iron ore strategy in a weak market: value-over-volume + cost resilience; some tonnes at risk
- Management emphasized a value-over-volume approach rather than chasing tonnage when competitors face thin/negative margins.
- They stated ~10% of seaborne iron ore supply (~160m t) is loss-making and is likely to be shut down/adjusted over time (supportive for industry margins).
- For Vale specifically, they indicated ~5m tonnes (between third-party and own production) could be at risk of adjustment if market economics remain weak—details to come at Vale Day.
Freight outlook: major protection from long-term shipping + fuel hedges; still costs pressured
- Freight environment worsened in 2026 (spot rates up), but Vale’s strategy protected relative economics:
- Brazil–China spot freight: + $12/t since Q1
- Australia–China spot freight: + $4.9/t
- Vale realized freight cost: only + $4.7/t
- Coverage: for Q4 fully covered; for 2027 already >80% secured.
- Benefit: cumulative >$3bn benefit vs spot market in 2026 (per call).
- Risk to watch: fuel/“bunker” costs and vessel charter costs still influence realized costs, but hedging reduces cash-flow volatility.
Exclusive for Stockcircle Pro members
Sign up
$26.47
131.8% upside
Current Fair Value
131.8% upsideUndervalued by 131.8% based on the discounted cash flow analysis.
Insider Trades
Loading insider trades…
Congress Trades
Loading congress trades…
Share Statistics
| Market cap | $48.65 Billion |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value | $62.01 Billion |
| Annual dividend | $1.06 |
| Dividend yield | 9.05% |
| Earnings per Share | $0.58 |
| Beta | 0.53 |
| Outstanding Shares | 4,259,349,000 |
Return
| Return on Equity | 5.34% |
|---|---|
| Return on Assets | 2.27% |
| Return on Invested Capital | 14.88% |
Valuation & Multiples
| P/E Ratio | 22.8 |
|---|---|
| PEG | -63.35 |
| Price to Sales | 1.27 |
| Price to Book Ratio | 1.27 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 1.5 |
| Enterprise Value to EBIT | 5.6 |
| Enterprise Value to Net Income | 30 |
| Total Debt to Enterprise | 0.31 |
| Debt to Equity | 0.5 |
Revenue Sources
No data
Last Earnings Call
Report Date
October 29, 2026
EPS Estimate
$0.38
Consensus analyst estimateRevenue Estimate
$10.45 B
Consensus analyst estimateNext Earnings Call
Expected Date
February 11, 2027
EPS Estimate
$0.40
Consensus analyst estimateRevenue Estimate
$10.71 B
Consensus analyst estimateInstitutional Put/Call Ratio
Compares institutional put options with call options. At 0.00, the ratio is below 1, so institutions hold more calls than puts.
| Put/Call Ratio | 0.0000▼ 131.11% |
|---|---|
| Total Calls | 1,000▼ 100.00% |
| Total Puts | -▼ 100.00% |
Institutional Ownership
Holdings and activity of institutional investors.
| Ownership % | 1.53%▼ 17.78% |
|---|---|
| Total Invested | $877.71M▼ 92.92% |
| Investors Holding | 159▼ 444.00% |
About Vale S.A.
65,805 employees
CEO: Murilo Pinto De Oliveira Ferreira
Operating both domestically in Brazil and across global markets, Vale S.A., along with its subsidiaries, serves as a significant supplier of iron ore and iron ore pellets, which are crucial raw materials for the steel manufacturing indus...