United Airlines Holdings Inc

Q3 performance: strong revenue momentum but margin pressured by fuel - Revenues up +17.4% YoY to a record ~$17.9B; TRASM up +15.9% with yields up +17% and modestly lower load factor. - Pretax margin 6.2% and EPS $2.54 (within guidance). - Fuel expense tailwind/fail: fuel prices accelerated in Q3; fuel drove a ~$1.8B YoY expense increase, and United recaptured 72% of that increase (with most recapture coming late in the quarter, not fully “caught up” yet).

Guidance/outlook: Q4 EPS range set; fuel recapture expected to stay meaningful but lags 100% - Q4 EPS guidance: $0.50 to $1.50 assuming all-in fuel ~$4.80/gal (per forward curve). - Underlying expectation: CASM ex decelerates and TRASM accelerates vs Q3. - Fuel recapture in Q4 expected similar to Q3, but below the 100% level they had previously anticipated due to the rapid late-Q3 jet fuel spike. - They emphasized Q3 as the “high watermark” for CASM ex/expense growth, then step down in Q4 and materially lower in 2027.

2027 plan & “what it takes” to reach double-digit pretax margins: requires either macro relief or sustained competitive RASM - CEO stated fuel likely remains elevated through 2027 and industry capacity may accelerate—so the path to double-digit pretax margins in 2027 is not automatic. - They likely need at least one of these for 2027 to reach double digits: - Lower fuel - Lower industry capacity - Industry willingness to trade load factor for yield (i.e., less discounting) - Starlink is a key controllable RASM tailwind, but management admitted it probably isn’t enough by itself to get to double digits. - Opportunity framed as: United’s competitive “brand loyalty + product/tech” stack should keep share gains and improve RASM even in tougher fuel/capacity conditions.