Tenaris S.A. - ADR

Q3 performance: strong profitability with margin tailwinds - Sales: $3.1B, +4% YoY and +5% sequentially (main drivers: higher North America demand and higher Middle East shipments vs the prior periods). - EBITDA: $756M, +16% sequentially; EBITDA margin 24%. - Margin drivers: favorable product mix, better industrial efficiency, and postponement of maintenance (helped margins despite higher raw material, energy and logistics costs). - Cash: Operating cash flow $366M (includes +$270M working capital build and $98M capex); free cash flow $168M; net cash increased to $3.8B.

Q4 outlook (forecast): revenue up ~10%, margin ~25% (benefits from mix + absorption) - Revenue: guided to be close to +10% (mostly volume growth across most markets). - Mix effect: partially limits pricing growth in Q4—seamless tubulars pricing is positive, but more welded large pipelines (lower average price than seamless) offsets some of the price/mix uplift. - EBITDA margin: expected around ~25% (new conditions + improved absorption as volumes rise). - Surprise/positive: management emphasized that Q3 and expected Q4 benefited from delayed shipments in the Gulf being completed and maintenance being pushed to later periods.

Middle East recovery: partial, not full—no full “bounce-back” in base case - Not factoring full recovery of Middle East shipments; disruption and logistics constraints remain. - Management expects Q4 and Q1 2027 to be broadly similar to Q3, with: - partial resumption in upper Gulf (some customers using ship-to-ship logistics), - Iraq/Kuwait/Qatar oil-related demand still not recovered fully, - LNG-associated OCTG in Qatar still not shipped as of the discussion. - Upside exists if the whole Gulf reopens, but it is treated as non-base.