Tomra Systems ASA

Strong quarter + cash generation; profitability improving but not yet “where it should be” - Group Q3 revenue: EUR 366m (+20% YoY); gross margin 43% (down vs Q3’25 due to Collection mix). - EBITDA: EUR 47m (+55% YoY) despite margin pressure from mix and higher opex. - Operating cash flow: EUR 112m, up from EUR 64m last year; working capital improved to 16% of revenue (from 19% YoY). - Good but still mixed: management reiterated overall profitability is still not at the desired level; improvement in Recycling is the key positive.

Collection (deposit) driving top-line growth; UK rollout is the major opportunity but revenue may be back-end loaded - Q3 Collection revenue: EUR 217m (+21% YoY); gross margin 40.8% (down 1.5pp YoY due to higher equipment share/mix; up vs Q2). - Growth drivers: Germany upgrade demand tied to new German deposit technology standards; Canada transitions and throughput volumes; new markets mainly Poland + Singapore + Romania. - UK market update: Phase model for ~25,000 RVMs in Phase 1 (large retailers) with some spillover into 2028; Phase 2 (smaller independents) indicated to start ~2028 and could last 1–3 years depending on collection-rate ramp and independent-store automation. - Investor implication (surprising/good to know): management suggests back-end revenue acceleration risk/opportunity—capacity and customer automation ramp may mean more revenue arriving later than the initial contract rollout, especially as Phase 2 develops.

Forecasts—Collection: H2 narrowed range; Recycling and Food: Q4 conversion drives earnings - Collection outlook (H2 2026): revenue EUR 410m–430m (narrowed); gross margin expected >40% H2 and ~40% full-year; opex expected around EUR 52m/quarter (plus minor FX). - Full-year capital allocation: capex guidance maintained EUR 90m–100m (mostly core divisions); lower Horizon investment vs last year. - Recycling outlook: FY revenue EUR 205m–215m; expects ~55% of Q3 backlog converted in Q4; Q4 gross margin 50%–54%, opex down to ~EUR 19m. - Food outlook: FY revenue EUR 347m–357m; expects ~80% of Q3 backlog converted in Q4; Q4 gross margin 43%–47%.