The Toronto-Dominion Bank

Record financial performance (good + confirms momentum) - TD delivered Q3 2026 record earnings of $4.7B and record EPS of $2.77. - Revenue grew 8% YoY, driven by markets-driven businesses, margin expansion, and volume growth in Canadian Personal & Commercial Banking. - Operating leverage continued: positive leverage for the 5th consecutive quarter; excluding variable comp, FX and U.S. strategic cards portfolio, expenses were up only 1% YoY. - ROE reached 16%, up 280 bps YoY—management highlights this as aligned with medium-term targets.

Credit quality: better-than-expected trend; PCL guidance unchanged but “lower end” now expected (surprising/very positive) - Impaired PCLs fell $108M QoQ to $865M; gross impaired loans down to 51 bps (down 3 bps QoQ). - Provision for credit losses (PCLs) 37 bps, down 6 bps QoQ, broadly across Wholesale, U.S. Banking, and Canadian Personal & Commercial. - Most important outlook: TD now expects total PCLs in fiscal 2026 to come near the lower end of 40–50 bps guidance (i.e., closer to ~40 bps than ~50 bps). - Management attributes improvement to economic resilience + customer/business adaptation + TD underwriting discipline (not any “anomaly” in their view).

Capital & shareholder returns: significant buyback capacity to reach 13% CET1 (good + forecast) - CET1 ended at 14.3% (down 3 bps QoQ), supported by organic capital accretion and continued buybacks. - TD reiterates capital plan: target ~13% CET1 by the second half of fiscal 2027. - Forecast / return math: assuming continued organic capital accretion and RWA growth, TD could return “over $13B” in capital in fiscal 2027 via buybacks to reach the 13% CET1 target. - CEO clarified this “$13B” figure is buybacks only (incremental to dividends), and buybacks depend on excess capital after meeting organic growth needs.