Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ)

Q3 headline performance (mixed but broadly stable): - EBITDA: SEK 1.63bn (+31% EBITDA margin), “in line” with Q3 ’25 and increased sequentially. - Net sales: SEK 5.2bn (+5% YoY) driven by higher volumes, partly offset by lower prices and negative currency. - Profit: EBIT just above SEK 1bn; net profit SEK 772m (effective tax rate <20%). - Key balance sheet metrics: Net debt ~SEK 11bn, net debt/equity ~10%, industrial ROCE slightly >0% (last 12 months), leverage 2. - Investor takeaway: overall earnings resilience, but earnings quality is clearly influenced by tariff refunds and maintenance stop timing.

Segment winners/losers (what drove the quarter): - Containerboard (best momentum): EBITDA margin ~23%, EBITDA +130% YoY (drivers: higher prices +130% earnings, lower planned maintenance costs, lower raw material costs, tariff repayment ~SEK 27m, partially offset by FX). - Renewable Energy (strong): EBITDA SEK 201m, margin ~42%—driven by higher fuel prices and strong production in the jointly owned Gothenburg biorefinery; higher deliveries from new wind farm Fasikan. - Forest/Industrial pressure: - Forest EBITDA down sharply YoY: SEK 702m, mainly lower pulpwood/sawlog prices and higher fuel costs; also seasonality/lower own-forest harvest contribution. - Pulp challenging: market remains weak due to low global softwood pulp prices and high China inventories; earnings impacted by lower prices (partly offset by cost savings, production strength, and tariff repayment of SEK 15m). - Solid Wood challenged: sawmills/production in Scandinavia ~stable, but delivery volumes down; EBITDA margin fell 15%→8% due to higher raw material costs + lower delivery volumes; market “moving sideways.”

Guidance / near-term outlook (explicit expectations for Q4–early 2027): - Wood raw material prices (Forest segment): expects another 4–5% decline in Q4 for both sawlogs and pulpwood (Andreass comment); by Q1 no further declines yet—expects “fairly flat” prices (too early to be certain). - Solid Wood demand: management expects stable demand at current level into next quarter, but seasonally weak demand for Q4 and limited downside from storm-log quality issues. - NBSK pulp / market balance: no formal forecasts, but they expect capacity cuts/stops to improve balance later; possible improvement in balance late ’26 / early ’27 (due to maintenance and closures). - Containerboard demand: management is constructively optimistic—after softer early summer, demand recovered in Q3, and they expect positive demand development into Q4; maintenance stops play a role in short-term balance.