Equinor ASA

Strong quarter + raising production guidance (good): - Production: +2% YoY in Q3; YTD +~5%. Guidance raised for 2026 from ~3% to ~4% production growth, driven by strong operational performance and high regularity across the portfolio. - Norway (NCS): Johan Sverdrup decline running at the low end of guidance; YTD decline ~11% vs expected 10–20%, with no buffer at plateau, implying sustained but tougher declines ahead. - International: +5% driven by new production (e.g., Oduro/Bakalau; Bacalau now at plateau) more than offsetting divestments (Peregrino, Argentina) and some US turnaround effects.

Financials: major improvement in profitability, but “other/derivatives” mattered (good + mixed): - Adjusted operating income: $12.4bn before tax, almost 2x same quarter last year. - Cash flow from ops after tax: $8.1bn in Q3; YTD $21.8bn. - Adjusted EPS: $1.20 (noting negative net financial items, mainly FX-driven). - Notable internal pressures: Power result ~zero; net impairments $485m (incl. Stuttgart partly offset by reversal at Martin Linge). - M&P (Mongstad/LNG/Power complex): delivered well above guidance largely due to refining strength and LNG, but shipping derivatives and “other refinery” elements created volatility (surprising to some analysts).

Cash flow outlook and tax cadence are a key swing factor (surprising/important): - Company reiterated that higher commodity prices lift earnings/cash flow, but tax timing will be a major headwind. - Updated CFFO/operational cash flow expectation (rule-of-thumb): from Capital Markets Day ~$25bn at earlier price deck to ~$29bn at current forward prices. - Tax payments: Q3 had $6.2bn of Norway tax installments; Q4 expects $9.3bn. First half 2027 expected higher due to the high-price environment and the Norway 6-month tax lag (meaning cash/debt metrics can look temporarily better than “earnings-reflective” figures).