Sempra

Q1 2026 results + guidance reaffirmed (good momentum) - Reported Q1 GAAP earnings: $1.37B ($1.58/share) vs $906M ($1.39/share) in Q1 2025; adjusted earnings: $991M ($1.51/share) vs $942M ($1.44/share). - Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance reaffirmed: $4.80–$5.30; 2027 guidance reaffirmed: $5.10–$5.70. - Reaffirmed long-term EPS growth outlook: 7%–9% (company positions this as among the highest in the utility sector).

Oncor (Texas) regulatory milestone likely lifts earnings later (surprising timing) - PUCT base rate review settlement approval received: higher authorized equity layer (43.5%), higher ROE (9.75%), and higher cost of debt (4.94%). - Surcharge mechanism allowed to recover the difference between new and current billing rates for 1/1/2026–6/1/2026, with recovery expected via a separate filing over the remainder of the year. - Management emphasized financial impact primarily recognized in Q2 because the PUCT order issued in April (important for investor timing/modeling). - Inaugural UTM filing submitted to include $4.4B of T&D assets placed in service since 1/1/2025—intended to reduce regulatory lag and can be filed every 365 days going forward.

Huge Texas growth “visibility,” but execution + policy risk remains (good upside, real challenges) - Oncor’s large-load qualification improved to 127 GW (up from ~38 GW earlier); management believes quality is comparable and that it meets requirements under prior SP6 criteria. - ERCOT process detail provided: Batch 0 protocol revisions moving through committees toward Board approval June 1; schedule as discussed: inclusion criteria July 2026, batch study Jul 2026–Jan 2027, load commitment Feb 2027, refinement Mar–May 2027, RPG submission June 2027 (subject to change). - Challenge: investor asked about feasibility/capacity; management response stressed Oncor base capital plan is largely independent of data center count uncertainty, but acknowledged the need to match load growth with transmission buildout and generation interconnection timelines. - Upside: company highlighted incremental capital opportunities (~$9B beyond base plan) largely concentrated in Texas; also an incremental ~$10B CapEx bucket being “firmed up,” with an update targeted later this year.