Space Exploration Technologies Corp.

Strong financial momentum + profitability trend (but still loss-making overall) - Q2 2026 results: Revenue $7.8B (+92% YoY); net loss $541M (improved by $467M YoY); Adjusted EBITDA $3.5B (+191% YoY). - Operating leverage improving: management emphasized narrowing losses and stronger segment EBITDA vs revenue growth. - Q2 capex intensity remains extremely high: $18.4B capex in the quarter, ~$15.8B for AI compute infrastructure (remainder for Starship/launch/satellites/ground). - No mention of dividends or buybacks in the call.

Guidance/trajectory: compute build-out + major revenue ramp expected - AI compute capacity: - End of 2026 expected >2 GW nameplate compute. - Company aims for multi‑GW online compute by end of 2027, with Elon stating a target closer to ~10 GW nameplate (and more emphasis on power/cooling capability—see next bullet). - Revenue outlook / ARR ambition: - Management expects, with Cursor contribution, ~$100B ARR (annualized run-rate) by end of 2026, based on expected December revenue. - Elon also said internal revenue projection moved up from 2031 → 2030, with a non-zero chance of 2029. - Demand evidence: in early Q3, SpaceX contracted an additional $6.7B of cloud services revenue over 6 months starting October.

Starlink opportunity framed as potentially “massive” and underappreciated - Subscriber growth and monetization: - Added +1.7M net subscribers in Q2 (vs +1.4M in Q1). - ARPU held at $66/month (unchanged QoQ). - Constellation: ~10,200 operational satellites by June 30 (~9,600 broadband delivering ~800 Tbps total downlink). - V3 impact: - After a “speed run” connecting every satellite through every laser link, SpaceX intends to deploy V3 satellites operationally on upcoming Starship missions (V3 described as ~10x more capable than V2; expected to enable ~10x bandwidth even with monetization pressure assumptions). - Enterprise/Government push: - American Airlines major agreement; service activated with Southwest, Virgin Atlantic, Iberia, Aer Lingus. - Management claimed customers are choosing flights specifically to be on Starlink-activated routes (suggests perceived service quality). - Forecast claim (big opportunity, but execution-dependent): management believes Starlink could represent a significant portion of global Internet traffic in <10 years in countries where operating permissions allow.