Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ)

Headline results (stable quarter; EBITDA strong but mixed drivers) - Q3’26 EBITDA: SEK 1.63bn → 31% margin; net profit: SEK 772m (SEK 1.1/share). - Net sales: SEK 5.2bn (+5% YoY); growth driven by higher delivery volumes (+9%), partly offset by lower prices (-3%) and currency (-1%). - Sequential improvement vs Q2, and in line with Q3’25 overall—however the underlying performance is materially segment-mixed.

Segment performance: Containerboard + Renewable Energy offset weakness in Pulp/Forest/Wood - Containerboard (strong rebound): sales just under SEK 2bn (+12% YoY); EBITDA +130% to SEK 446m (23% margin) driven by higher prices, lower planned maintenance costs, lower raw material costs, and tariff repayments (SEK 27m) (partly offset by FX). - Renewable Energy (very strong): EBITDA SEK 201m (42% margin); strength from high fuel/oil prices and strong production (wind farm Fasikan; biorefinery Gothenburg). - Pulp (challenging, low pricing environment): EBITDA margin 11%; profitability supported by lower raw material/energy costs, higher volumes, and SEK 15m tariff repayment, but global pulp pricing remains weak due to soft demand and high inventories in China; softwood pulp closures announced. - Forest/Wood (pressure from prices + fuel): Forest EBITDA down (YoY -23% mentioned) due to pulpwood & sawlog price declines and increased fuel costs. - Solid wood (market sideways): demand “moving sideways” with flat/stable demand expected; Q3 margin fell 15% → 8% due to higher raw material costs and lower delivery volumes; inventory described as high for pine in Scandinavia (risk for pricing/market balance).

Forward view: Q4 expectations—wood raw material prices down; Containerboard demand constructive - Wood raw material prices/costs: management expects another 4–5% decline in both sawlogs and pulpwood in Q4 (after ~5% down from Q2). - Wood pricing: Ulf indicated underlying prices likely unchanged, but seasonally weak demand plus storm-log quality impacts create limited downside risk. - Containerboard demand: positive momentum continues; demand improved after a softer early-summer period; no new capacity startups in first 3 quarters; Q4 affected by ramp-up of new capacity from 2025 and some closures to balance supply. - NBSK pulp: no formal forecast, but expect better balance as maintenance stops and closures reduce capacity in late Q3/Q4; potential price improvement late 2026 / early 2027 timing.