Ryanair Holdings plc

Q3 headline performance + profit drag (good vs bad): - Ryanair reported Q3 profit after tax (pre-exceptionals) of €115m, down 22% YoY, driven mainly by the absence of Boeing delivery delay compensation that was received in the prior-year quarter. - Traffic grew +6% to 47.5m passengers, with load factors flat at 92%. - Average fares rose +4% (supported by strong midterm break demand in October plus close-in bookings for Christmas/New Year). - Cost control was strong: unit costs flat in the quarter; total costs up 6% to €3.11bn (excluding the legal provision).

Italian AGCM fine: provisioned but management expects reversal (surprising legal item): - An exceptional charge includes an €85m provision (≈33%) for an Italian AGCM fine (~€256m) announced late December. - Management calls it “utterly baseless” and says it contradicts a Milan Court of Appeal precedent (Jan 2024) and will be overturned on appeal. - They will not provide for the remainder in Q4; unusual for Ryanair, which typically provisions ~50% for legal appeals—here they cut to 33% due to confidence. - Investor takeaway (risk/volatility): if appeals fail, this could become a significant earnings overhang, but the base case is “appeal win / write-back later.”

Forward guidance FY26: modestly upgraded demand + cautiously guided profit (key outlook): - FY26 traffic raised to ~208m passengers (+4% YoY), from 207m previously, due to earlier-than-expected Boeing deliveries and strong demand. - Fares expected to be ahead of prior +7% guidance by potentially another ~1–2% (i.e., roughly ~8–9% growth), helped by Q4 demand resilience. - Profit outlook (cautious): FY26 PAT pre-exceptionals guided €2.13bn–€2.23bn, but still exposed to external risks in Q4 (see next bullet). - Cost inflation expected to remain modest: fuel hedging + cost control offset higher ATC/environmental items; also no Boeing compensation in the second half (a known headwind that guides conservatism).