Ryanair Holdings Plc - ADR

Q1 performance (profit down sharply, but operations growing): - Profit after tax: €538m, -34% YoY (vs €820m in Q1 last year), mainly due to oil price spike on ~20% unhedged fuel and Easter timing (part of Easter shifted into prior-year Q4). - Traffic: +6% YoY to 61.3m passengers. - Revenue per passenger: -5% YoY (fares -6%, ancillary revenues flat). - Unit costs: +5% YoY, described as “impressive” given unhedged jet fuel doubled to $151/bbl.

Fuel hedging is the key swing factor (and Ryanair says it’s protected): - FY2027 jet fuel hedged: 80% at $67/bbl (major insulation for current year earnings). - FY2028 hedging extended: 15% hedged at ~$85/bbl (first time they extend into FY28). - Risk remains: earnings sensitivity to the remaining ~20% unhedged fuel is explicitly the main earnings swing factor.

Outlook & guidance posture (not giving full-year profit guidance): - FY2027 traffic forecast: +4% to ~216m passengers, with front-loaded growth (+6% in H1) and only +2% in H2 as the winter schedule is cut back. - Cost inflation: guiding toward low single-digit unit cost inflation for the rest of the year. - Pricing outlook (negative): Q2 pricing trending modestly down low-to-mid single digits YoY; they had hoped for flat but now expect a decline, and H2 visibility is “zero” (no meaningful profit guidance). - Fair trend explanation: stronger volumes and later booking patterns are not enough to offset earlier discounting and weaker close-in pricing assumptions.