Pampa Energia SA - ADR

Strong operating performance but softer quarter-on-quarter; CapEx heavy - Q3 adjusted EBITDA: $398m (+23% YoY); -4% QoQ mainly from lower crude oil inventories and oil hedge, partly offset by higher gas realized prices. - EBITDA mix: Oil & gas = 55% of total EBITDA (largest contributor), power benefited from improved margins. - CapEx: $585m (+85% YoY) and more than double QoQ, driven by ramp-up at Fértil Pampa post-FID and moderation in Rincón de Aranda as it moves toward plateau. - Negative: CapEx intensity is weighing on cash flow (see free cash flow bullet).

Power segment: margin expansion under deregulation; GENBAL to benefit from new gas transportation - Power adjusted EBITDA: $160m (+33% YoY, +3% QoQ). - Why margins improved: stronger thermal spot + B2B PPA margins under the new framework; marginal pricing for spot electricity increased technology dispatch margins (excluding fuel). - Dispatch headwind: El Niño reduced thermal dispatch (milder weather). Peakers dispatched less due to merit order. - Regulatory outlook (Resolution 400/2025): - FRA (dispatch margin share) increases: from 15% this year → 25% next year (conceptually impacts EBITDA). - B2B quota for legacy thermal units rises: 20% of energy → 60% of energy (starting April next year). - Gas transportation unlocks “full margin” (for assets like Genelba once new infrastructure is available): management explicitly expects FRA moving toward 100% capture with the additional pipeline. - Opportunity: expectation that Genelba CCGT margins increase in 2025/26 timeframe due to TGS Perito Moreno expansion enabling full margin capture.

Gas: higher prices + more self-supply, but output down due to El Niño and demand mix - Gas adjusted EBITDA: $119m (+6% YoY, -2% QoQ). - Production: 13.2 mcm/d (-6% YoY, -8% QoQ); deliveries to CCGTs helped but were offset by softer industrial/export volumes and milder El Niño weather. - Pricing: gas averaged ~$5/MMBTU (+12% YoY), helped by partial LNG linkage in winter pass-through (CAMMESA). - Contract structure shift: Plan Gas via retailers/CAMMESA 61% of sales (down from 71% last year) due to GSAs transfer, but retail sales improved. - Major operational opportunity: New Perito Moreno capacity secured: 9.6 mcm/d (plus 2.5 previously contracted and 3.5 for Central Loma La Lata wellhead consumption) → total 15.6 mcm/d, excluding San Matías. - Management connects this to expanding self-supply for power and increasing export ability (north Chile/Brazil) and power margins.