Natera Inc

Strong Q2 performance: record volumes + accelerating adoption - Processed ~1.044M tests in Q2 (again >1M; new company record). - Oncology clinical MRD units: ~283k, +~56% YoY (Q2 2025), and +34k sequentially (largest QoQ increase to date). - Management attributes sequential acceleration to: recovery from weather-impacted Q1, commercial team ramp (hired earlier in 2025), and post-approval momentum (FDA + Japan PMDA) plus broad tumor-type uptake (CRC/breast largest; growing “long tail”). - Revenue: ~$753M, +~38% YoY (reported); ~40% YoY ex-revenue true ups.

Margins and cash flow improving; gross margin target reiterated - Gross margin ~65% in Q2, driven by sequential ASP improvement. - Sequential ex-true-up margin improved ~50 bps vs Q1 (partly offset by COGS uptick from scaling newer products). - Company reiterates comfort moving toward 70%+ gross margin over time (step-function style improvements expected from reimbursement/coverage and internal COGS projects). - DSO improved to ~57 days (down ~4 days), and company again generated positive cash inflow, with losses continuing to narrow while investing in growth.

Big outlook upgrade (forecast): revenue guide reset higher; growth ex true-ups ~31% - Revenue guidance reset upward by $100M at the midpoint to $2.85B–$2.91B for the year. - Implies ~31% annual revenue growth ex true-ups and expects stronger H2 vs H1. - OpEx held steady (still investing—“foot on the gas”). - Management says the guide is supported by: volume growth + stable ASPs, and better-than-expected women’s health seasonality. - Signatera ASP growth drivers are intentionally kept out of 2026 guide (MolDX/Medicare Advantage expansion + NCCN bladder + more indications expected later—key execution dependency).