MSCI Inc
MSCI - Insider Information
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Earnings Call Q3 2026
October 20, 2026 - AI Summary
Strong Q3 momentum + record operating metrics (good/surprising)
- Total revenue +12.4% YoY; ABF revenue +25%, subscription revenue +8%; adjusted EBITDA +12%; adjusted EPS +14%.
- Operating performance: ABF run-rate up to ~“almost $1B” (record); ~$76B ETF cash inflows; ~$23T AUM benchmarked to MSCI indices (about $15T active / $8T indexed).
- Subscription health: retention rate 95% (up +30 bps YoY); recurring net new sales growth notably strong: Index +40% YoY, Analytics +63%, PCS +88%.
- Run-rate framework: reported total run-rate growth ~12%; subscription run-rate +9% (added ~$55M recurring net new sales).
Guidance + outlook for profitability: expenses at top end; margins/FCF not immediately expanding
- Company expects full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA expenses at the top end of guidance ranges (due to acquisition-related costs, higher performance stock comp, and severance), while still highlighting attractive long-term profitability growth.
- Full-year tax rate guidance tightened to ~18%–19.5%.
- No near-term promise of margin expansion: Henry explicitly said margin expansion expectations are not immediate, because MSCI sees major reinvestment needs for data/models/AI growth.
AI-first strategy framed as both growth accelerator and long-term cost leverage (opportunity)
- Management’s thesis: AI is a “godsend” enabling (1) more capacity to invest by lowering “run-the-business” growth in EBITDA expenses, (2) faster/better product creation (agentic workflows), and (3) a potential longer-term shift in how clients consume content/models (agentic “streaming” vs traditional SaaS).
- Specific AI/agentic build-outs mentioned:
- Model creation factory: reduce model build/calibration time from weeks → hours (eventually minutes).
- Specialized data sets (e.g., geospatial and AI value-chain data).
- On cost trajectory: AI expected to move run-the-business expense growth from mid/high single digits toward low single digits and potentially negative over time (but this is a longer timeline, not instant).
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$328.81
50.1% downside
Current Fair Value
50.1% downsideOvervalued by 50.1% based on the discounted cash flow analysis.
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Share Statistics
| Market cap | $46.60 Billion |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value | $54.27 Billion |
| Annual dividend | $7.95 |
| Dividend yield | 1.24% |
| Earnings per Share | $15.58 |
| Beta | 1.2 |
| Outstanding Shares | 72,100,000 |
Return
| Return on Equity | -45.87% |
|---|---|
| Return on Assets | 24.73% |
| Return on Invested Capital | 47.53% |
Valuation & Multiples
| P/E Ratio | 34.1 |
|---|---|
| PEG | 433.14 |
| Price to Sales | 14.01 |
| Price to Book Ratio | -15.68 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 15.81 |
| Enterprise Value to EBIT | 28.4 |
| Enterprise Value to Net Income | 39 |
| Total Debt to Enterprise | 0.15 |
| Debt to Equity | -2.63 |
Revenue Sources
No data
Last Earnings Call
Report Date
October 27, 2026
EPS Estimate
$5.13
Consensus analyst estimateRevenue Estimate
$886.54 M
Consensus analyst estimateNext Earnings Call
Expected Date
January 26, 2027
EPS Estimate
$5.09
Consensus analyst estimateRevenue Estimate
$913.65 M
Consensus analyst estimateInstitutional Put/Call Ratio
Compares institutional put options with call options. At 0.00, the ratio is below 1, so institutions hold more calls than puts.
| Put/Call Ratio | 0.0000▼ 75.81% |
|---|---|
| Total Calls | 2,120▼ 99.02% |
| Total Puts | -▼ 100.00% |
Institutional Ownership
Holdings and activity of institutional investors.
| Ownership % | 17.22%▼ 75.89% |
|---|---|
| Total Invested | $6.66B▼ 82.49% |
| Investors Holding | 503▼ 604.00% |
About MSCI Inc
CEO: Henry Fernandez
