GFL Environmental Inc. - Ordinary Shares (Sub Voting)
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+ FollowMarket Cap$17.45B
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Earnings Call Q3 2026
October 29, 2026 - AI Summary
Strong Q3 beat + margin durability (good/surprising): Q3 revenue +27% YoY to ~$8B run-rate drivers include ~5.7% price, small volume improvement, and M&A (~19%, Frontier + SECURE). Adjusted EBITDA margin = 31.5%, +30 bps vs expectations and flat YoY—reported as the highest margin in company history despite major fuel headwinds. Underlying (ex-fuel/other headwinds) margin up ~125 bps YoY; they cited operational discipline (labor turnover improvements, cost self-help).
Fuel/diesel is the main earnings headwind (bad): Diesel prices accelerated another ~10% QoQ, >60% YoY higher; fuel surcharge mechanisms work but indirect costs (transportation, spares, other categories) pressure margins. They now expect ~$125M incremental annual costs vs original Q3 guide from elevated diesel (plus landfill operating expenses like leachate transportation/disposal).
Raised full-year 2026 guidance (forecast/update): With current FX/commodity/diesel assumptions, they increased guidance again:
- Revenue: $8.055B–$8.075B
- Adj. EBITDA: $2.49B–$2.495B (~30.9% margin, +40 bps vs prior guide)
- Adj. Free Cash Flow: $1.02B
- They assume elevated diesel continues for the rest of the year; explicitly no additional M&A assumed beyond what’s already in the base.
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$-1.95
104.3% downside
Current Fair Value
104.3% downsideOvervalued by 104.3% based on the discounted cash flow analysis.
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Share Statistics
| Market cap | $17.45 Billion |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value | $27.41 Billion |
| Annual dividend | $0.07 |
| Dividend yield | 0.15% |
| Earnings per Share | $0.66 |
| Beta | 0.51 |
| Outstanding Shares | 385,667,838 |
Return
| Return on Equity | -4.93% |
|---|---|
| Return on Assets | -1.69% |
| Return on Invested Capital | 1.07% |
Valuation & Multiples
| P/E Ratio | -62.99 |
|---|---|
| PEG | 52.98 |
| Price to Sales | 2.38 |
| Price to Book Ratio | 2.38 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 3.69 |
| Enterprise Value to EBIT | 130.97 |
| Enterprise Value to Net Income | -76 |
| Total Debt to Enterprise | 0.37 |
| Debt to Equity | 1.38 |
Revenue Sources
No data
Last Earnings Call
Report Date
November 4, 2026
EPS Estimate
$0.20
Consensus analyst estimateRevenue Estimate
$1.40 B
Consensus analyst estimateNext Earnings Call
Expected Date
February 10, 2027
EPS Estimate
$0.17
Consensus analyst estimateRevenue Estimate
$1.66 B
Consensus analyst estimateInstitutional Put/Call Ratio
Compares institutional put options with call options. At 0.00, the ratio is below 1, so institutions hold more calls than puts.
| Put/Call Ratio | 0.0000▼ 50.12% |
|---|---|
| Total Calls | -▼ 100.00% |
| Total Puts | -▼ 100.00% |
Institutional Ownership
Holdings and activity of institutional investors.
| Ownership % | 2.12%▼ 74.69% |
|---|---|
| Total Invested | $322.41M▼ 96.82% |
| Investors Holding | 90▼ 248.00% |
About GFL Environmental Inc.
15,500 employees
CEO: Patrick Dovigi
GFL, headquartered in Vaughan, Ontario, is the fourth largest diversified environmental services company in North America, providing a comprehensive line of non-hazardous solid waste management, infrastructure & soil remediation and liqu...