HF Sinclair Corp.
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+ FollowMarket Cap$17.51B
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Earnings Call Q3 2026
October 28, 2026 - AI Summary
Strong Q3 2026 results; major jump vs. 2025 (surprising magnitude)
- Q3 net income attributable to HF Sinclair shareholders: $2.0B / $11.38 per diluted share; includes special items of -$64M.
- Adjusted net income: $2.1B / $11.75 vs $459M / $2.44 in Q3 2025.
- Adjusted EBITDA: $3.0B vs $870M in Q3 2025.
- Refining adjusted EBITDA: $2.6B vs $661M in Q3 2025, driven by tight transportation fuel supply, elevated crack spreads, and small refinery RIN waivers.
- Notable operational/volume nuance: crude runs 614 kbpd vs 639 kbpd in Q3’25; lower Mid-Con volumes due to planned El Dorado turnaround.
Cash returns to shareholders remained a priority (dividends + buybacks)
- Returned $572M in Q3: $93M regular dividends + $479M share repurchases.
- Since the March 2022 acquisition, returned ~$5.7B and reduced share count by 73M+ shares.
- Board declared regular quarterly dividend of $0.525/share.
- Company reiterated capital allocation discipline: target 50% payout ratio and expects to end 2026 at that level.
Guidance & capex outlook: 2026 revised upward; 2027 early guidance limited
- Full-year 2026 capital: revised to ~$725M sustaining/turnarounds + $150M growth (total ~$875M).
- Q4 2026 crude run rate guidance: 560–600 kbpd (includes planned El Dorado turnaround impacts).
- CEO: feels 2027 is too early for detailed capex guidance; expects sustaining/turnaround capex to remain range-bound, with incremental spend tied to FID on growth projects.
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$43.23
57.7% downside
Current Fair Value
57.7% downsideOvervalued by 57.7% based on the discounted cash flow analysis.
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Share Statistics
| Market cap | $17.51 Billion |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value | $17.54 Billion |
| Annual dividend | $2.05 |
| Dividend yield | 2.01% |
| Earnings per Share | $3.11 |
| Beta | 0.71 |
| Outstanding Shares | 175,871,000 |
Return
| Return on Equity | 30.09% |
|---|---|
| Return on Assets | 17.04% |
| Return on Invested Capital | 27.57% |
Valuation & Multiples
| P/E Ratio | 5.17 |
|---|---|
| PEG | 1.29 |
| Price to Sales | 0.52 |
| Price to Book Ratio | 1.53 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 0.5 |
| Enterprise Value to EBIT | 3.8 |
| Enterprise Value to Net Income | 4 |
| Total Debt to Enterprise | 0.19 |
| Debt to Equity | 0.29 |
Revenue Sources
No data
Last Earnings Call
Report Date
October 29, 2026
EPS Estimate
$6.52
Consensus analyst estimateRevenue Estimate
$8.51 B
Consensus analyst estimateNext Earnings Call
Expected Date
February 17, 2027
EPS Estimate
$6.10
Consensus analyst estimateRevenue Estimate
$8.56 B
Consensus analyst estimateInstitutional Put/Call Ratio
Compares institutional put options with call options. At 28.04, the ratio is above 1, so institutions hold more puts than calls. That is a more cautious stance.
| Put/Call Ratio | 28.0370▲ 2646.91% |
|---|---|
| Total Calls | 2,700▼ 99.89% |
| Total Puts | 75,700▼ 98.04% |
Institutional Ownership
Holdings and activity of institutional investors.
| Ownership % | 22.20%▼ 67.64% |
|---|---|
| Total Invested | $4.28B▼ 61.88% |
| Investors Holding | 418▼ 301.00% |
About HF Sinclair Corporation
3,891 employees
CEO: Michael Jennings
HollyFrontier Corporation, headquartered in Dallas, Texas, is an independent petroleum refiner and marketer that produces high value light products such as gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel and other specialty products. HollyFrontier owns ...