Carnival plc - ADR

Q3 2026 performance: record revenues/yields and EPS beat - Company reported record revenues and yields and reported net income exceeding June guidance by >$100M (about $0.08/share). - Outperformance drivers (vs June guidance): - Yields: up ~2.5% YoY, and ~1.2 percentage points above June guidance; driven by strong close-in demand and robust onboard spending. - Non-fuel cruise costs: increased only ~1.8% YoY per ALBD, which was ~100 bps better than guidance. - Fuel consumption: delivered ~4% YoY better reduction (on top of prior-year improvements). - Customer momentum: deposits hit a Q3 record ~ $7.6B (+~7% despite flat capacity growth).

Updated full-year 2026 outlook (raise) - They expect > $150M net income improvement vs June guidance, driven by better yields/costs/fuel efficiency offsetting ~$150M impact from higher fuel prices. - 2026 guidance highlights: - Yield growth: ~2.3% (more than 0.5 point better than June). - Q4 yield growth: ~1.7% YoY (about 0.75 point above implied June). - Cruise costs excluding fuel: ~+2.2% YoY (better than June). - Fuel: consumption improvements expected to offset volatility; they cite 26% lower fuel consumption per ALBD since 2019 and ~$750M fuel savings at September guidance fuel prices. - EPS forecast: $2.24, up $0.02 from prior guidance.

2027 demand & booking picture: strong pricing/occupancy but Q1 remains the main timing headwind - Capacity growth: ~+0.5% in 2027 vs 2026 (intentionally restrained). - 2027 “half booked” already with record occupancy and pricing; bookings supported by healthy increases after earlier disruption. - Q1 2027: still expected to reflect residual booking disruption from spring volatility; guidance commentary suggests the issue is mostly timing/profile, not a thesis-breaking demand problem. - Europe ramps: Europe becomes, for the first time, tied with the Caribbean as largest deployment region at ~34% each in 2027 (driven by Northern Europe coolcation strategy and longer seasonality).