Carnival Corp. - Ordinary Shares (Paired Stock)

Q3 performance: record results; beats guidance despite fuel volatility - Revenues and yields reached new highs; net income beat June guidance by ~$100M (~$0.08/share). - Yield up ~2.5% YoY (about 1+ point better than expected), aided by strong close-in demand and robust onboard spending. - Cruise costs (ex-fuel) improved vs guidance: unit costs ~1 point better than guidance; most cruise cost savings are expected to flow through to full-year results. - Fuel consumption improved: ~3–4 points better than expected and nearly ~4% better YoY (helping offset higher fuel prices).

Full-year 2026 outlook raised: EPS up to ~$2.24 (+$0.02) - Company expects > $150M net income improvement vs June guidance, driven by better yields, cruise costs ex-fuel, and fuel consumption improvements, offsetting ~$150M impact from higher fuel prices. - Full-year yield growth guided at ~2.3% (about 0.5 point better than June). - Q4 yield outlook: ~1.7% YoY (about 0.75 points above implied June); “normalized” for loyalty accounting, guidance implies ~2.3%. - Key fuel/cost takeaway: while fuel price is volatile, management emphasizes consumption discipline—guided fuel savings from reduced consumption are described as nearly ~$750M at September fuel price assumptions.

2027 demand/booking momentum strong, but with early-year carryover - 2027 capacity growth ~+0.5% (i.e., modest supply growth). - They highlight record occupancy and pricing with the booking impact of spring disruption still weighted into 2H 2026 → Q1 2027. - Q1 2027 expected to still reflect residual disruption, but booking trends have rebounded over the past ~3 months; team working to increase demand across the board. - Europe mix narrative: Europe becomes tied with the Caribbean as the largest region for 2027 (~34% each)—seen as supported by longer seasonality and Northern Europe demand.