BP plc - ADR

Strategic Progress and Portfolio Reshaping: BP has made significant strides in restructuring its portfolio, achieving 10 new Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) in 2024 (including projects in Cascadia and Tangguh), which is expected to drive future growth. The company is also reshaping its asset base by entering new markets (Iraq and India) and divesting underperforming or non-core assets, aiming for growth in cash flow and shareholder value.

Refining Challenges and Recovery Plans: BP faced difficulties in refining during 2024, primarily due to low margins and an unforeseen outage at the Whiting facility. However, there is optimism for recovery with expected improvements in plant reliability (targeting 96%) and a focus on cost agenda starting in 2025. Refining margins are beginning to recover as TAR season begins globally, hinting at potential profit boosts moving forward.

Year-on-Year EBITDA Forecasts: For 2025, BP predicts an increase in EBITDA of 3% to 4% compared to 2024, alongside the recovery from the Whiting outage. The company aims for an EBITDA target of $46 billion to $49 billion, contingent on continued operational improvements and commodity price adjustments. This reflects a strong trend of underlying growth and recovery in operational performance.