Axfood AB

Continued growth + resilient profitability despite a tough market - Q3 retail sales grew ~3% (vs Q2 stronger), mainly driven by higher volumes (still behind the market on absolute growth). - Net sales +2% (reported excluding VAT); deflation was a major drag (prices fell ~2% YoY per SCB, excluding VAT). - Group profitability/margin stable at 4.9% (reported and adjusted), supported by stable gross margin and effective cost control despite deflation and cost headwinds (incl. higher fuel prices). - Comparable items were minor: SEK 1m vs SEK 39m a year ago.

Guidance revised (mainly timing), reflecting delayed investments + postponed costs - Full-year outlook revision is not a demand collapse story; it’s largely timing: - Capex lowered to ~SEK 2.0–2.1bn (from prior level), due to delays in detailed planning for the Kungsbacka logistics automation. - Automation plan moved: remaining investment pushed into 2025; operation/ramp-up still expected to begin in 2030 (but some delay risk remains). - Structural costs in City Gross postponed (affecting comparability rather than underlying progress). - Opportunity/risk implication: execution risk around logistics rollout timing, but fundamental trajectory remains intact.

Segment performance highlights: Willys modest, Hemköp strong, City Gross now profitable - Willys: sales +~2%, like-for-like positive but modest; deflation held back growth; operating margin slightly lower to 4.7%. - Management emphasized tactical “calibration”: strengthening price/assortment/campaign execution and store upgrades to Willys 5.0 to improve top-line momentum. - Hemköp: retail sales +7% with strong like-for-like; operating margin up to 5.8%. - Management attributes outperformance to modernized stores, improved assortment/convenience (e.g., ready meals, deli), and improving price-value perception. - City Gross: key “good/surprising” item—profitability reached the ambition. - Like-for-like improved; operating trend improved largely from structural measures/efficiency and operational model changes. - 12-month rolling breakeven achieved; Q3 profitability improving despite limited headline operational gains. - Continued restructuring: closed Helsingborg store (5th closure), converting site to Willys to strengthen the City Gross core.