Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc

Q3 delivered improved volumes & stronger adjusted profitability (but cost pressure still present) - Adjusted EBITDA: $29.4m in Q3 vs $25.6m in Q2. - Tons shipped: 3.9m in Q3 vs 3.5m in Q2 (sequential improvement vs the first half). - Realizations: Average $121.09/ton in Q3 vs $118.71/ton in Q2; Q3 met segment weighted average $124.52/ton (roughly flat QoQ). - Key negative: Cost of coal sales increased to $106.93/ton in Q3 from $103.07/ton in Q2—management attributes results to ongoing input/cost pressures and says it remains a focus.

2027 outlook: volumes slightly stronger at the mid-point; cash cost inflation largely “tailed back” - 2027 shipment guidance (met + thermal byproduct): 14.3m–15.7m total tons (met 13.1m–14.1m + incidental thermal 1.2m–1.6m). - 2027 cost of coal sales guidance: $104–$110/ton (range implies margin depends heavily on indices and diesel/energy run rates). - Cash cost commentary (investor-relevant “good”): CEO said most input-cost impacts are already in the system; therefore next year they don’t expect a material further step-up. - Diesel sensitivity (helpful detail): Management referenced roughly 20–22 million gallons of diesel across operations; guidance assumed low- to mid-$5s/gal (per CEO recollection). Investors asked about what happens if diesel falls materially—implied cost reduction exists but requires “do the math” rather than a quantified figure.

DTA terminal damage (June storm): replacement expected; timeline ~2 years; insurance likely covers costs (but timing is a risk) - After storm damage at Dominion Terminal Associates (DTA), DTA believes the stacker reclaimer (SR1) needs replacement, not repair. - Capital requirement (good/positive): Company stated they do not anticipate significant capital outlays for the replacement process (suggesting insurance coverage is expected to be meaningful). - Timing risk (negative/surprising): A full replacement is custom-built and likely ~2 years (investor risk is throughput/logistics disruption during build period). - Mitigation plan (opportunity): They plan to keep coal moving using throughput at another Hampton Roads terminal while DTA addresses SR1—management said they are optimistic they can move needed tons in 2027 and beyond. - Insurance reimbursement timing: CEO said it’s too early to comment on reimbursement timing, but doesn’t expect multi-quarter sequencing issues (possible shorter lag only).