CF Industries Holdings Inc
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+ FollowMarket Cap$18.66B
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Earnings Call Q2 2026
August 6, 2026 - AI Summary
Strong results + safety/operational execution (the “base case” driver)
- 1H 2026 adjusted EBITDA: $2.2B; 2Q 2026 adjusted EBITDA: $1.2B (EBITDA in both periods equals adjusted EBITDA per company).
- Safety: trailing 12-month incident rate 0.16 incidents per 200,000 hours, “well below industry averages.”
- Utilization: ran available ammonia capacity at ~98% in 1H to meet demand.
- Capital efficiency / cash conversion: trailing 12-month free cash flow ~ $1.8B; net cash from operations ~ $3B; consistent EBITDA-to-FCF conversion.
Upgraded “mid-cycle” earnings and cash outlook (structural, not just geopolitical)
- Company raised expectations to a baseline mid-cycle EBITDA ~ $2.9B and free cash flow ~ $1.7B (drivers: higher global capital costs + closing of cost gap for new capacity + recognizing carbon capture benefits).
- By 2030 mid-cycle EBITDA target: ~ $3.3B (company frames this as decarbonization + Blue Point + other margin-enhancing projects).
- Management argues the market may over-attribute gains to short-term Middle East risk; they emphasize structural tightening in nitrogen from higher global build costs, closures, and limited new capacity growth—i.e., stronger baseline earning power even before a geopolitical premium.
Market setup: tight global nitrogen supply into 2027, with near-term volatility
- Price pressure / volatility: 1H saw significant price rises on tight supply, then Q2 softening (customers deferred purchases in some regions; inventory fell).
- How they positioned operationally: leveraged flexibility to prioritize urea over UAN when needed; also delivered DEF strength (company cited 2nd-highest DEF volumes in 1H and described it as highest-margin).
- Order book / fall season: in North America, after low inventories, the company built a substantial UAN order book extending into November and expects a strong fall ammonia season.
- Tight through 2027: expectations of tight fundamentals even excluding geopolitical shocks, with LNG economics pressuring marginal producers and geopolitical-exposed supply remaining uncertain.
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$358.30
221.1% upside
Current Fair Value
221.1% upsideUndervalued by 221.1% based on the discounted cash flow analysis.
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Share Statistics
| Market cap | $18.66 Billion |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value | $19.90 Billion |
| Annual dividend | $2.10 |
| Dividend yield | 1.70% |
| Earnings per Share | $8.98 |
| Beta | 0.4 |
| Outstanding Shares | 153,600,000 |
Return
| Return on Equity | 36.52% |
|---|---|
| Return on Assets | 13.90% |
| Return on Invested Capital | 12.50% |
Valuation & Multiples
| P/E Ratio | 9.12 |
|---|---|
| PEG | 10.32 |
| Price to Sales | 2.23 |
| Price to Book Ratio | 1.92 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 2.57 |
| Enterprise Value to EBIT | 11.11 |
| Enterprise Value to Net Income | 9 |
| Total Debt to Enterprise | 0.19 |
| Debt to Equity | 0.65 |
Revenue Sources
No data
Last Earnings Call
Report Date
November 4, 2026
EPS Estimate
$3.00
Consensus analyst estimateRevenue Estimate
$1.77 B
Consensus analyst estimateInstitutional Put/Call Ratio
Compares institutional put options with call options. At 0.00, the ratio is below 1, so institutions hold more calls than puts.
| Put/Call Ratio | 0.0000▼ 69.63% |
|---|---|
| Total Calls | 2,800▼ 99.93% |
| Total Puts | -▼ 100.00% |
Institutional Ownership
Holdings and activity of institutional investors.
| Ownership % | 5.87%▼ 98.49% |
|---|---|
| Total Invested | $1.04B▼ 94.05% |
| Investors Holding | 331▼ 692.00% |
About CF Industries Holdings Inc
2,900 employees
CEO: W. Anthony Will
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. operates internationally as a major manufacturer and supplier of hydrogen and nitrogen-based products. These essential chemicals serve diverse applications, including energy production, agricultural fertiliza...