Yara International ASA. - ADR

Strong underlying earnings, driven by nitrogen margins (good/surprising) - EBITDA excluding special items: $896m (+40% YoY), mainly from higher nitrogen operating margins in a tight early-2026 market. - Earnings per share +60% YoY (depreciation/interest/tax broadly stable). - Return on invested capital doubled to 12.2% (rolling 12 months) vs 6% last year, above the through-the-cycle 10% target. - Free cash flow: +$196m despite +$35m increase in operating capital, due to strong cash from operations; net investments were flat.

Market disruption from Middle East conflict = major supply shock and affordability stress (bad) - Conflict is disrupting global fertilizer inputs and trade: ~1/3 of globally traded urea passes through the Strait of Hormuz, plus disruptions to ammonia, sulfur, phosphates and ~20% of global LNG trade. - Urea prices up sharply since February (+47%) and Egypt FOB +77%; fertilizer affordability is worsening due to weak crop prices + regulatory burdens, with higher volatility and risk premiums. - Expectation for continued stress: narrowing supply margins requires demand rationing (talked about as ~5–10% demand drop in Europe as one directional view).

Operational resilience with flexibility—plus an outage/turnaround risk (mixed) - Company emphasized “uphold production / continuity of supply” with limited disruption to production or supply chains so far. - Gas-price volatility management: no hedging; they rely on natural correlation between energy and nitrogen, plus switching capability (e.g., import ammonia into Europe rather than producing ammonia locally). - Specific negative operating items: - Pilbara ammonia plant outage since mid-March, expected restart in May. - Belle Plaine turnaround after the season (June), with estimated ~150k tonnes urea reduction vs full-year and ~140k tonnes ammonia loss due to the outage.