Ryanair Holdings plc

Q3 performance: profit down, operations solid (and costs controlled) - Ryanair reported Q3 PAT €115m (pre-exceptional), down 22% YoY, mainly because there was no Boeing delivery delay compensation in Q3 this year (it was present in Q3 last year). - Traffic up +6% to 47.5m passengers with flat 92% load factors. - Average fares up +4% YoY (attributed to strong midterm break demand in October and strong close-in bookings for Christmas/New Year). - Unit costs flat (good cost control): total costs +6% to €3.11bn *excluding* the Italian provision.

Italian AGCM fine: major “surprising” negative, but provision reduced due to appeal confidence - An exceptional charge of ~€85m recorded as a provision (~33% of the €256m Italian AGCM fine announced late December). - Management strongly argues the fine is “utterly baseless” and expects the ruling to be overturned on appeal, citing a prior Milan Court of Appeal precedent (Jan 2024). - Notably cautious vs usual policy: Ryanair’s normal legal provision has been ~50% for appealed fines, but they lowered to 33% given appeal confidence. - They do not expect to provide more in Q4; potential upside if the provision is later written back to P&L (timeline: “next year or 2”).

FY26 outlook: modestly raised traffic + fare strength; profit guidance “cautious” - Traffic forecast raised to ~208m passengers for FY26 (+4% YoY), helped by earlier-than-expected Boeing deliveries. - Fare outlook improved: management expects full-year fares to exceed prior +7% guidance by ~1–2% (i.e., roughly 8–9% growth). - Profit outlook (pre-exceptional): €2.13bn to €2.23bn (cautious range). - Risks to the FY26 number explicitly flagged: - Ukraine/Middle East escalation - macro shocks - further European ATC strike/disruption risk - (and generally “adverse external developments in Q4”)