Ryanair Holdings plc

Q3 performance: solid ops, but profit hit by “one-off” comparables + Italian fine - PAT (pre-exceptionals): EUR 115m, down 22% YoY, mainly because there was no Boeing delivery delay compensation in Q3 this year (it existed in the prior-year quarter). - Traffic: 47.5m passengers (+6% YoY) with load factor flat at 92%. - Fares: +4% YoY, driven by strong October midterm break and close-in Christmas/New Year bookings. - Revenue: EUR 3.21bn (+9% YoY); ancillaries up 7% (and +1% per passenger). - Costs: unit costs flat in the quarter (good cost control). Total costs up 6% to EUR 3.11bn. - Exceptionals: EUR 85m provision for the Italian AGCM fine (about 33% of the alleged amount). Michael/Neil stress they believe it will be overturned on appeal.

Italian AGCM “baseless fine”: investor-significant overhang, provision reduced vs typical - Management says the AGCM fine was levied on Christmas Eve and they call it “utterly baseless”. - They cite a precedent Milan Court of Appeal ruling (Jan 2024) supporting their direct distribution model (lower fares, cost efficiency, consumer communication). - Provision is 33% this time vs their usual ~50% approach—because confidence is higher. They do not expect to add further provisions. - Surprising/negative element: despite confidence, the company still recorded EUR 85m in this period—so the “bad news” already hit earnings.

FY26 outlook: traffic and fares look better; profit guidance stays cautious due to macro/operational risks - Traffic forecast raised to ~208m passengers for FY26 (+4% YoY) (from 207m), attributed to earlier-than-expected Boeing deliveries and strong demand. - Fares: now expected to be ahead of previous +7% growth by another ~1–2% → roughly +8–9% full-year. - Costs: management expects modest unit cost inflation, helped by fuel hedging + delivery/cost dynamics (benefits offset ATC/env costs and loss of Boeing compensation in H2). - Profit guidance (FY26): PAT pre-exceptionals EUR 2.13bn–2.23bn (still “cautious”). - Key risks/challenges to guidance: Ukraine/Middle East escalation, macro shocks, and repeat European ATC strikes/mismanagement. (They explicitly say the final outcome remains exposed to external disruptions.)