Ryanair Holdings plc

Q3 fundamentals: demand resilient, costs controlled; profit pressured by lack of Boeing compensation + Italy fine - Profit: Q3 PAT pre-exceptional EUR 115m, down 22% YoY (mainly because no Boeing delivery-delay compensation this year, whereas it existed in prior-year Q3). - Traffic & pricing: Traffic +6% to 47.5m passengers; load factor flat at ~92%; average fares +4% (supported by strong October midterms + strong close-in bookings around Christmas/New Year). - Costs: Unit costs flat in the quarter (good cost discipline). Total costs up 6% to EUR 3.11bn (excluding the provision below). - Negative/exceptional: booked an EUR 85m AGCM provision (approx. 33% of the total fine), which is the key headwind in the reported numbers.

Big forecast update: FY26 traffic and fares strengthening; cautious profit guidance maintained - FY26 traffic raised: now expected +4% to ~208m passengers (from ~207m previously), attributed to earlier-than-expected Boeing deliveries and strong demand. - Fares outlook: company now expects full-year fares to be ahead of +7% prior guidance by another ~1–2% (i.e., ~8–9% growth), as Q4 pricing is modestly ahead YoY even without Easter benefits. - FY26 profit guidance (range): PAT pre-exceptionals EUR 2.13bn to EUR 2.23bn (“cautious”). - Key investor takeaway: operating trend (flat unit costs, better pricing) is supportive, but management emphasizes profit remains exposed to late-quarter external shocks (see risk bullets).

Fuel & hedging: “surprising good” cost tailwind for FY27 - Fuel hedged at very attractive levels: FY27 hedging = 80% at ~$67/bbl, management says this yields ~10% savings in fuel costs next year. - Near-term hedging also strong: current FY quarter ~84% hedged at ~$76/bbl; Q4 FY26 ~84% hedged at ~$77/bbl. - FX hedging: euro-dollar exposure locked at ~EUR 1.15 for next year (vs ~EUR 1.11 current year) to help cost stability. - Investor implication: this is one of the clearest measurable positives vs typical airline cost uncertainty.