Packaging Corp Of America
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+ FollowMarket Cap$23.83B
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Earnings Call Q3 2026
October 22, 2026 - AI Summary
Q3 2026 results beat guidance; earnings up vs. last year
- Net income: $262M / $2.93 EPS; ex-special items: $272M / $3.40 EPS vs $247M / $2.73 EPS in Q3 2025.
- Net sales: $2.6B (vs $2.3B in Q3 2025).
- EBITDA (ex-special items): $577M (vs $503M in Q3 2025).
- Exceeded guidance of $2.91 EPS driven by stronger price realization and better-than-expected Greif contribution (partially offset by higher costs and lower-than-forecast corrugated volume).
- Special items included $0.11 per share largely from facilities closures/write-offs, acquisition/integration costs, Palmyra sheet feeder fire impact, and Wallula restructuring charges.
Key driver: strong pricing + Greif integration; cost headwinds intensified
- Legacy earnings improved +$0.07 EPS; price/mix and volume improvements were notable.
- Consolidated EPS bridge (ex-special items) included major tailwinds:
- Packaging price/mix: about +$0.79 (and production/sales volume tailwind), plus +$0.12 from additional containerboard supply to Greif.
- Paper price/mix: +$0.05; lower share count: +$0.02.
- Major headwinds: labor/operating +$0.28, freight +$0.26, fiber +$0.12, depreciation/amortization +$0.06, maintenance/outage +$0.04, interest +$0.01.
- Greif: contribution +$0.24 favorable YoY, about $0.13 EPS in month 1 of ownership this year vs a $0.11 loss last year; later commentary emphasized Greif performance improved after earlier “fixing assets” and reliability upgrades.
Operations/volume: tight market, solid shipments; inventory rebuilt ahead of Q4
- Containerboard/corrugated pricing: up $0.75 per share vs Q3 2025 and up $1.11 vs Q2 2026; management expects almost all of the remainder of the recent increase to roll into Q4, with the $70 increase split between Q4 and Q1 (skewed more to Q1).
- Shipments: up ~11% (and per day) vs last year; legacy business down ~0.5% (ag-related softness/lettuce issues referenced).
- Inventory: up ~34k tons vs Q2 end—management said it’s needed for Q4 supply planning.
- Surprising/negative operational item: Palmyra fire kept the Greif corrugated plant down for most of September, pressuring volumes there.
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$180.92
27.3% downside
Current Fair Value
27.3% downsideOvervalued by 27.3% based on the discounted cash flow analysis.
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Share Statistics
| Market cap | $23.83 Billion |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value | $27.79 Billion |
| Annual dividend | $5.50 |
| Dividend yield | 2.14% |
| Earnings per Share | $8.58 |
| Beta | 0.77 |
| Outstanding Shares | 88,707,000 |
Return
| Return on Equity | 15.58% |
|---|---|
| Return on Assets | 6.59% |
| Return on Invested Capital | 12.13% |
Valuation & Multiples
| P/E Ratio | 31.51 |
|---|---|
| PEG | 192.49 |
| Price to Sales | 2.26 |
| Price to Book Ratio | 3.83 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 2.83 |
| Enterprise Value to EBIT | 23.25 |
| Enterprise Value to Net Income | 38 |
| Total Debt to Enterprise | 0.16 |
| Debt to Equity | 0.94 |
Revenue Sources
No data
Last Earnings Call
Report Date
October 28, 2026
EPS Estimate
$2.95
Consensus analyst estimateRevenue Estimate
$2.61 B
Consensus analyst estimateNext Earnings Call
Expected Date
January 26, 2027
EPS Estimate
$2.81
Consensus analyst estimateRevenue Estimate
$2.62 B
Consensus analyst estimateInstitutional Put/Call Ratio
Compares institutional put options with call options. At 0.00, the ratio is below 1, so institutions hold more calls than puts.
| Put/Call Ratio | 0.0000▼ 22.98% |
|---|---|
| Total Calls | -▼ 100.00% |
| Total Puts | -▼ 100.00% |
Institutional Ownership
Holdings and activity of institutional investors.
| Ownership % | 3.35%▼ 96.45% |
|---|---|
| Total Invested | $681.05M▼ 96.76% |
| Investors Holding | 332▼ 583.00% |
About Packaging Corp Of America
15,500 employees
CEO: Mark Kowlzan
Packaging Corporation of America (PCA) is the third largest producer of containerboard products and the third largest producer of uncoated freesheet paper in North America. PCA operates eight paper mills and 92 corrugated products plants and related facilities.