Duke Energy Corp. - 5.625% DB REDEEM 15/09/2078 USD 25

Strong 2Q results; reaffirmed 2026 EPS outlook + confidence on 2028 “top-half” growth - Adjusted EPS $1.43 (reported $1.38) vs $1.25 in the prior year (both reported and adjusted). - Drivers: Electric Utilities growth from customer growth + infrastructure investment; partially offset by higher depreciation and higher interest expense. Gas Utilities largely flat as expected. - 2026 guidance reaffirmed: $6.55 to $6.80 EPS (top-half not required for 2026; management emphasizes “largest quarter still ahead”). - Long-term: maintains 5%–7% EPS CAGR through 2030, expecting to deliver top half of the range beginning in 2028 tied to large-load economic development projects under ESAs.

Massive regulated capital build: “$1B/month” + 15 GW generation pipeline target - Management says they’re deploying >$1B per month to meet record demand and execute the regulated capital plan. - Generation build: on track for 15 GW of capacity additions by 2031 (via latest 10-year site plan in Florida). - Execution detail: gas turbine framework with GE Vernova increased to 26 turbines; 1 delivered in July, 2nd later this year. - Pipeline status: $5.0B–$10.0B upside to the current 5-year capital plan as additional ESAs convert, particularly in Indiana and Florida (with additional opportunities in Carolinas, Ohio, Kentucky).

Large-load contracting progress is the key “engine” (and timing matters) - Secured 7.8 GW of electric service agreements with data center customers; management says signed ESAs protect existing customers and spread fixed costs over a larger base. - First-half economic development wins: $5B investment supporting 9,000+ jobs (across service territories). - Expectation: convert the remaining 15.4 GW pipeline to ESAs by first half of 2027; customers expected to begin taking power as early as 2H 2027 through 2028, ramping into the early 2030s. - Surprising/implicit risk: negotiations can take longer due to complexity—management repeatedly emphasized confidence but noted ESA landing is a process issue (not just construction).