Vistra Corp

Strong Q2 performance; guidance reaffirmed - Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA: $1.767B (≈+30% YoY, vs. ~$1.35B in Q2’25; generation ~$994M, retail ~$773M). - Drivers: favorable hedging (avg realized prices ~+5% per MWh YoY), higher PJM capacity revenues, optimization of flexible gas run profile, restart of Martin Lake Unit 1, and Lotus assets contribution. - 2026 guidance reaffirmed: - Adjusted EBITDA: $6.8B–$7.6B - Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth: $3.925B–$4.725B - Management confidence: performance in 1H positions them to hit at/above midpoint.

2027 outlook: still positive but bias toward lower end of range - 2027 Adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity range kept at: $7.4B–$7.8B, excluding Cogentrix and the Meta PPA premium. - Reasoning: - Headwind: ERCOT forward curves are meaningfully lower vs Oct. 31, 2025. - Offsets: higher PJM prices, comprehensive hedging, and downside protection from nuclear PTC. - Net view from CFO: offsets don’t fully offset ERCOT softness → expectation trending toward the lower end (without including Cogentrix/Meta).

Capital allocation: heavy shareholder returns + disciplined growth investment - Forecast: >$10B available cash in 2026–2027. - Shareholder payouts (equity holders): ~$3B via share repurchases + common & preferred dividends in 2026–2027. - Buybacks highlight: - Since Nov 2021: ~171M shares retired at ~$38 average cost. - Remaining authorization: ~$1.2B, expected to be exhausted no later than end of 2027. - Through Aug 3: >$6.5B returned via repurchases, ahead of prior target (≥$6B by year-end 2026). - Growth investment plan: ~$4.5B–$5B accretive growth, including Cogentrix, Permian Peakers, PJM nuclear (Meta PPAs), Oak Hill 2 solar (investment-grade counterparty PPA), and Helix commitment. - Balance sheet: achieved investment-grade from two major agencies; goal to reach mid-investment-grade at all three.