Smurfit WestRock plc

Strong Q2 operating performance despite major headwinds - Reported adjusted EBITDA of $1.14B and adjusted EBITDA margin of 14.2%. - Management highlighted that results were achieved while the group absorbed very significant freight and input-cost inflation, with only early-stage price recovery. - Cost increases (especially freight) led to containerboard price actions, which management expects to be recovered through converting operations over 2026 and into 2027 (lagged pass-through).

Full-year outlook: freight remains the key risk, but confidence persists - Main update to FY 2026 outlook: higher freight cost environment is the largest headwind and is expected to impact earnings immediately, while recovery arrives with time lag as pricing is implemented. - Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance: $4.9B to $5.1B (unchanged theme: demand is still viewed as healthy, but cost inflation timing is the problem). - Offsets mentioned: ~EUR 100M lower economic downtime in a region, continued operational execution, and significant group cost takeout.

Demand/supply backdrop is unusually tight across paper markets (supportive) - CEO described paper markets as as tight as he’s seen in his lifetime; most paper grades are “sold out” (with only small exceptions, e.g., small slack in CRB). - Tightness expected to support pricing/capacity realization and reduce commercial downtime; management indicated mills are generally full and no commercial downtime is anticipated for the remainder of 2026 in North America. - Surprising nuance: while paper is tight, boxes (corrugated) are more mixed regionally due to market/region differences and ongoing box-plant optimization.