Nutrien Ltd
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+ FollowMarket Cap$34.06B
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Earnings Call Q3 2026
November 5, 2026 - AI Summary
Core performance & cash returns (good)
- 3Q26 adjusted EBITDA: $1.31B; first nine months: $4.85B.
- Operating cash flow up 17% through 9M vs prior year.
- Share repurchases accelerated: ~$75M/month in 3Q and maintained into 4Q (vs ~$53M/month in 1H), driven by confidence in cash generation and capital flexibility.
- Total shareholder returns (9M): $1.3B via dividends + repurchases.
- Management reiterated priorities: disciplined capex, strong balance sheet, and returning excess cash; expects net debt reduction by year-end.
Potash outlook & guidance (good, with a key constraint risk)
- 3Q26 potash adjusted EBITDA: $730M; volumes near record amid affordability-supportive pricing.
- Full-year potash sales volume guidance raised to 14.3–14.8M tons.
- Updated outlook reflects strong customer engagement; expects similar offshore/domestic mix in 4Q YoY.
- Market outlook: global shipments forecast 74–77M tons in 2026 (maintained) and 75–79M tons in 2027 (historical-growth pace).
- Supply-chain/logistics risk: limited new potash operational capacity in 2027 and possible ongoing geopolitics affecting ability to move supply (FSU logistics disruption cited as evidenced by limited October shipments).
Nitrogen outlook & reliability ramp (good)
- 3Q26 nitrogen adjusted EBITDA: $497M; includes volume impacts from planned turnarounds, partially offset by higher global benchmarks and lower natural gas costs.
- With 2026 maintenance complete, expects ammonia operating rates >95% in 4Q.
- Full-year nitrogen sales volume guidance raised to 9.3–9.7M tons.
- Macro expectation: global supply/demand tight into 2027; elevated energy prices + trade flow disruptions/outages constrain supply; increased Chinese urea export availability seen as only a partial offset.
- Management expects strong nitrogen demand early in 2027 after deferred purchasing, ahead of Northern Hemisphere planting.
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$50.79
28.9% downside
Current Fair Value
28.9% downsideOvervalued by 28.9% based on the discounted cash flow analysis.
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Share Statistics
| Market cap | $34.06 Billion |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value | $47.26 Billion |
| Annual dividend | $2.19 |
| Dividend yield | 3.07% |
| Earnings per Share | $4.74 |
| Beta | 1.13 |
| Outstanding Shares | 476,669,000 |
Return
| Return on Equity | 8.58% |
|---|---|
| Return on Assets | 4.19% |
| Return on Invested Capital | 8.73% |
Valuation & Multiples
| P/E Ratio | 15.54 |
|---|---|
| PEG | -40.78 |
| Price to Sales | 1.21 |
| Price to Book Ratio | 1.32 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 1.67 |
| Enterprise Value to EBIT | 12.92 |
| Enterprise Value to Net Income | 21 |
| Total Debt to Enterprise | 0.3 |
| Debt to Equity | 0.55 |
Revenue Sources
No data
Last Earnings Call
Report Date
November 4, 2026
EPS Estimate
$0.74
Consensus analyst estimateRevenue Estimate
$5.66 B
Consensus analyst estimateNext Earnings Call
Expected Date
February 17, 2027
EPS Estimate
$1.04
Consensus analyst estimateRevenue Estimate
$5.51 B
Consensus analyst estimateInstitutional Put/Call Ratio
Compares institutional put options with call options. At 4.10, the ratio is above 1, so institutions hold more puts than calls. That is a more cautious stance.
| Put/Call Ratio | 4.0997▲ 226.81% |
|---|---|
| Total Calls | 13,565▼ 99.56% |
| Total Puts | 55,612▼ 99.01% |
Institutional Ownership
Holdings and activity of institutional investors.
| Ownership % | 4.42%▼ 60.38% |
|---|---|
| Total Invested | $1.50B▼ 92.21% |
| Investors Holding | 223▼ 565.00% |
About Nutrien Ltd
25,100 employees
CEO: Charles Magro
Nutrien Ltd. operates as a key supplier of agricultural essentials and related support services. Its comprehensive offerings include crucial crop inputs like potash, nitrogen, phosphate, and sulfate fertilizers, alongside various financi...