NiSource Inc - Units

Earnings performance & full-year outlook reaffirmed (core “good”): - Q2 2026 consolidated adjusted EPS: $0.16 vs $0.22 in Q2 2025 (down $0.06 YoY). - YTD adjusted EPS: $1.22, up $0.03 vs prior year. - Management attributed the YoY decline mainly to higher O&M driven by unusually heavy storm activity and elevated costs to maintain workforce continuity during ongoing union negotiations—partly offset by new rate/recovery mechanism benefits (including rate implementation at NIPSCO Electric and Columbia Gas of Ohio/Pennsylvania). - Guidance reaffirmed: 2026 consolidated adjusted EPS $2.02–$2.07 (no change). - Expect more of the earnings-weight in 2H due to approved recovery mechanisms, new regulatory activity (notably Virginia and Ohio), and Alphabet energization in 2H.

Long-term growth targets remain intact (important forecasts): - Base plan adjusted EPS growth (through 2030): 6%–8% CAGR. - Consolidated adjusted EPS CAGR (2026–2033): 9%–10%. - Capital investment outlook (unchanged): 5-year total plan of $21B base business, $2B upside opportunities, plus $7.6B GenCo capital supporting data centers. - Return framework: consolidated rate base growth 9%–11% (2026–2033); base business rate base growth 8%–10% through 2030. - Financing posture: maintain FFO-to-debt 14%–16% each year; annual equity issuance expected ~$400M–$600M (along with long-term debt and minority interest contributions).

Data center (“GenCo”) strategy is still the biggest upside catalyst (opportunity + milestones): - Management emphasized that the GenCo model is designed to be affordability-positive by returning value to existing customers. - Customer benefit expectation: ~$1.4B of bill reductions for existing NIPSCO electric customers over the contracts; estimate up to ~$124/year for an average residential customer (≈ ~1 month of an electric bill). - Near-term timing: benefits expected to begin as early as Q4 2026. - Regulatory progress (important): - IURC approved original Amazon special contract + related PPA + generation resources (June); set expedited schedules (90–120 days) for future agreements. - IURC approved Alphabet agreement (July); project on track to energize in summer, ramping to full capacity by 2030. - Amazon amendments filed July 17: increases contracted load by 400 MW; seeking final order by November. - Pipeline strength: 9 GW pipeline referenced with 3 GW in active strategic negotiations and ~2 GW additional potential; company said it could support expansion beyond 9 GW, not because of constraint, but due to ongoing preplanning across land/zoning/transmission/fuel/equipment.