NiSource Inc

Earnings & guidance: solid start; reaffirmed outlook (no change) - Q2 2026 consolidated adjusted EPS: $0.16 vs $0.22 in Q2 2025 (down $0.06 YoY). - YTD adjusted EPS: $1.22, up $0.03 YoY. - Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance reaffirmed: $2.02 to $2.07. - Longer-term (base plan) reaffirmed: 6%–8% annual adjusted EPS growth through 2030; 9%–10% CAGR 2026–2033. - Capital outlook reaffirmed: $21B base business investment + $2B upside opportunities + $7.6B GenCo capital (total themes unchanged); confidence driven by “approved recovery mechanisms,” new regulatory activity, and data center energization timing.

Why Q2 was weaker (the “bad”): storm/O&M + union-related cost pressure - Q2 YoY decline in EPS reflects: - Higher O&M due to unusually elevated storm activity and incremental expense to maintain workforce continuity during ongoing union negotiations. - Management emphasized operational readiness benefits—i.e., costs are painful near-term, but tied to safe/reliable service.

Data center (GenCo) strategy: major growth engine; benefits already quantified - With IURC approvals of Amazon & Alphabet data center agreements, GenCo is on track to add incremental consolidated earnings value in 2026 and beyond. - Customer affordability impact quantified: agreements expected to deliver about $1.4B in bill reductions over contract lives. - For an average NIPSCO residential customer: up to ~$124 annually (management framed as ~1 month of an electric bill). - Timing expectation: benefits begin as early as Q4 2026 (surprising upside is that benefits are expected quickly, not only far out). - Pipeline strength: ~9 GW current pipeline; 3 GW active strategic negotiations + ~2 GW additional potential in sight. - Regulatory execution milestones: - June: IURC approved original Amazon special contract and underlying PPA/generation resources; also agreed expedited schedules (90–120 days) for future agreements. - July 17: filed NIPSCO amendments increasing Amazon contracted load by 400 MW; seeking final order by November. - Alphabet: IURC approved in July; ready to energize with load ramp expected to full capacity by 2030. - Segmentation/visibility: management expects to start reporting segment information by end of fiscal year (investor reporting transparency improves later).