Lilly(Eli) & Co
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Earnings Call Q3 2026
October 29, 2026 - AI Summary
Q3 performance + guidance raise (strong “incretin-led” results):
- Revenue +39% YoY in Q3 (nearly +$7B vs Q3’25); key product revenue +$6B+ and oncology/immunology/neuroscience doubled YoY.
- Gross margin 84.4% (+80 bps); non-GAAP EPS $7.48 (includes acquired IPR&D charges $4.57). Non-GAAP performance margin 54.2% (+5.9 pts).
- Full-year 2026 guidance raised: revenue $91–$92B (up vs prior outlook); non-GAAP performance margin 52.5%; non-GAAP EPS $35–$36.
- “One-time” tailwinds acknowledged: Q3 included ~$900M favorable items; 2026 revenue benefited by ~$2B of non-recurring items (milestones + rebate estimate changes).
US demand dynamics & Medicare GLP-1 Bridge (surprisingly strong uptake; market expansion still early):
- The company emphasized the Medicare GLP-1 bridge: expanded obesity access for ~20M seniors; since July 1, 500K+ prescriptions filled.
- Bridge “mix” surprises/strength: ~7 out of 10 starting on a Lilly obesity medicine; ~75% of new bridge patients started on injectables.
- Naïve share high: about ~80% of bridge patients are new/naïve to therapy (not just switches).
- Management argues this is a multi-year runway, not just pull-forward: US reach described as still low (~1 in 10 patients treated; worldwide ~2 in 100), implying significant TAM still untapped.
Incretin franchise momentum across geographies (volume-driven growth; price is a headwind):
- US revenue +34% driven by volume; price down (reported; ~-7%, and -10% excluding rebate/discount estimate adjustment).
- International: Europe +29% constant currency; Japan +26% constant currency (plus a $410M milestone); China +62% constant currency; “rest of world” +87% constant currency.
- Mounjaro/Zepbound combined: >$16B Q3 revenue; +$6B YoY contribution.
- Market share/uptake signals: US incretin prescriptions +32% YoY; Lilly portfolio ~7/10 injectable prescriptions and >60% share in T2D.
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$706.58
50.2% downside
Current Fair Value
50.2% downsideOvervalued by 50.2% based on the discounted cash flow analysis.
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Share Statistics
| Market cap | $1.26 Trillion |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value | $1.32 Trillion |
| Annual dividend | $6.69 |
| Dividend yield | 0.47% |
| Earnings per Share | $23.07 |
| Beta | 0.45 |
| Outstanding Shares | 891,900,000 |
Return
| Return on Equity | 81.82% |
|---|---|
| Return on Assets | 19.48% |
| Return on Invested Capital | 42.01% |
Valuation & Multiples
| P/E Ratio | 45.89 |
|---|---|
| PEG | 253.23 |
| Price to Sales | 14.62 |
| Price to Book Ratio | 38.32 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 15.13 |
| Enterprise Value to EBIT | 33.14 |
| Enterprise Value to Net Income | 47 |
| Total Debt to Enterprise | 0.05 |
| Debt to Equity | 1.78 |
Revenue Sources
No data
Last Earnings Call
Report Date
October 29, 2026
EPS Estimate
$5.71
Consensus analyst estimateRevenue Estimate
$22.58 B
Consensus analyst estimateNext Earnings Call
Expected Date
February 3, 2027
EPS Estimate
$11.16
Consensus analyst estimateRevenue Estimate
$24.58 B
Consensus analyst estimateInstitutional Put/Call Ratio
Compares institutional put options with call options. At 11.75, the ratio is above 1, so institutions hold more puts than calls. That is a more cautious stance.
| Put/Call Ratio | 11.7500▲ 1099.68% |
|---|---|
| Total Calls | 2,000▼ 99.99% |
| Total Puts | 23,500▼ 99.81% |
Institutional Ownership
Holdings and activity of institutional investors.
| Ownership % | 13.81%▼ 75.11% |
|---|---|
| Total Invested | $142.61B▼ 84.99% |
| Investors Holding | 2,115▼ 2687.00% |
About Lilly(Eli) & Co
50,000 employees
CEO: David Ricks
Eli Lilly and Company operates internationally as a pharmaceutical enterprise, dedicated to the discovery, development, and commercialization of human therapeutics. Its comprehensive product lineup addresses numerous critical health area...