Fortum Oyj

Q3 & YTD headline performance (good but not “all upside”) - Q3 comparable operating profit: EUR 102m (+EUR 5m YoY); EPS flat at EUR 0.08. - Operating cash flow: EUR 134m (slightly higher YoY). - 9M 2026 comparable operating profit: EUR 729m (+EUR 55m); drivers show Generation up, while Consumer Solutions and Other Operations down. - Main positive driver: higher nuclear generation (fewer nuclear outage days vs. last year). - Main offsetting negatives: lower physical value creation and high hedge ratio reduced the benefit from price volatility.

Power pricing, volumes & market backdrop (surprising: spot strength doesn’t fully flow through) - Achieved power price (Q3): EUR 45.5/MWh (slightly down vs EUR 46.1/MWh YoY). - Realized blended market price in generation areas: EUR 46/MWh (about +EUR 10 vs EUR 36.7/MWh YoY). - Why achieved price slightly lower despite stronger markets: weaker physical value creation + high hedging dampened pass-through. - Outright generation: 9.8 TWh (+0.7 TWh YoY). - Nordic hydro stress: market reservoirs started Q3 with about -5 TWh deficit, worsening to roughly -13 TWh deficit by quarter end (supports stronger regional prices, but also signals tightness).

Full-year outlook & key guidance (unchanged) - Optimization premium guidance (full-year 2026): maintained at EUR 8–10/MWh. - Longer-term optimization premium (2027+): EUR 6–8/MWh (explicit note: predictability declines further out). - Nuclear outlook (important downgrade vs normal, but small change vs prior estimate): - 2026 estimated nuclear output: ~23 TWh vs “normal” 26 TWh. - Previously guided 23–23.5 TWh → now a bit lower, reflecting outage scheduling/known maintenance. - Capex guidance (unchanged): EUR 550m committed for 2026; EUR 2bn committed 2026–2030 (incl. EUR 750m growth). Annual maintenance ~EUR 250m. - Tax rate (2026): 18%–20% effective income tax rate.