Equifax, Inc.
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Earnings Call Q3 2026
October 20, 2026 - AI Summary
Q3 performance strong despite mortgage headwinds (good)
- Total revenue: $1.693B, +10% reported / +9% constant currency, slightly below July guidance due to ~$20M negative impact from a weaker U.S. mortgage market in September (per “Juli(a) framework”).
- Diversified markets: +8% revenue growth, broad-based across all 3 business units; exceeded mid-single-digit guidance.
- Margins/EPS: EBITDA margins up ~130 bps ex-FICO (excluding FICO) driven by operating leverage, AI productivity, and cost management; EPS +11%, $2.26/share above the high end of guidance.
- Key surprise: Strong margin expansion and EPS growth occurred even with mortgage market transaction volume weakening (30Y fixed rates up ~75 bps since July).
U.S. mortgage market weakness persists into Q4 and 2026 (bad / key risk)
- Q3 impact: Mortgage transaction decline drove ~$20M revenue decline vs guidance.
- Q4 expectation: Mortgage revenue ~$60M weaker vs July guidance; U.S. mortgage revenue down mid-single digits YoY in Q4.
- FY2026 update: Total U.S. mortgage revenue now expected ~$80M below previous guidance; ex-FICO mortgage royalty pass-through, mortgage revenue ~slightly above flat vs 2025 (reflecting fewer originations, but some pass-through mix).
- 2027 setup (risk): Using current transaction levels, 2027 originations expected down high-single-digits on average vs 2026 (with effects largely in the first 8 months), assuming mortgage volumes remain weak.
2026 guidance updated: margin momentum up, revenue somewhat constrained (forecast)
- FY2026 revenue midpoint: $6.661B (midpoint), reflecting the ~$80M mortgage headwind vs July guide.
- FY2026 adjusted EBITDA margin ex-FICO mortgage royalties: upgraded to +100 bps vs 2025 (from +75 bps in July), despite weaker mortgage revenue (driven by AI/automation and cost management).
- FY2026 adjusted EPS: $8.50/share (midpoint) within July range, but slightly below the July midpoint due to revenue headwinds largely offset by margin strength.
- Cash flow / conversion: Free cash flow > $1B in 2026; cash conversion >100%, and capital available ~$1.5B while targeting leverage around ~3x EBITDA.
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$87.03
54.1% downside
Current Fair Value
54.1% downsideOvervalued by 54.1% based on the discounted cash flow analysis.
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Share Statistics
| Market cap | $22.15 Billion |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value | $27.28 Billion |
| Annual dividend | $2.18 |
| Dividend yield | 1.15% |
| Earnings per Share | $5.36 |
| Beta | 1.27 |
| Outstanding Shares | 117,300,000 |
Return
| Return on Equity | 16.61% |
|---|---|
| Return on Assets | 6.22% |
| Return on Invested Capital | 11.88% |
Valuation & Multiples
| P/E Ratio | 30.43 |
|---|---|
| PEG | 94.66 |
| Price to Sales | 3.39 |
| Price to Book Ratio | 4.86 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 4.14 |
| Enterprise Value to EBIT | 21.93 |
| Enterprise Value to Net Income | 36 |
| Total Debt to Enterprise | 0.19 |
| Debt to Equity | 1.19 |
Revenue Sources
No data
Last Earnings Call
Report Date
October 20, 2026
EPS Estimate
$2.20
Consensus analyst estimateRevenue Estimate
$1.69 B
Consensus analyst estimateNext Earnings Call
Expected Date
February 3, 2027
EPS Estimate
$2.15
Consensus analyst estimateRevenue Estimate
$1.63 B
Consensus analyst estimateInstitutional Put/Call Ratio
Compares institutional put options with call options. At 0.00, the ratio is below 1, so institutions hold more calls than puts.
| Put/Call Ratio | 0.0000▼ 72.55% |
|---|---|
| Total Calls | -▼ 100.00% |
| Total Puts | -▼ 100.00% |
Institutional Ownership
Holdings and activity of institutional investors.
| Ownership % | 12.70%▼ 87.79% |
|---|---|
| Total Invested | $2.06B▼ 89.21% |
| Investors Holding | 364▼ 500.00% |
About Equifax, Inc.
15,000 employees
CEO: Mark Begor
Equifax Inc. is a leading provider of data analytics and human resources outsourcing services, catering to a diverse clientele that includes businesses, government agencies, and individual consumers. The company's operations are structur...