Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc

Earnings/financial performance (mixed: modest EBITDA growth but volume down): Adjusted EBITDA was $30.0M for Q1 2026 vs $28.5M in Q1 2025 (and vs $19.0M cash from ops in Q4; operating cash flow $29.0M in Q1). Sold 3.6M tons in Q1 vs 3.8M tons in Q4 (lower volume). Average met segment realization rose to $128.40/ton in Q1 vs $118.10/ton in Q4. However, met cost of coal sales increased to $107.98/ton from $101.43/ton (diesel + supply/repair cost pressure were key drivers). SG&A (ex noncash/nonrecurring) rose to $13.5M from $10.9M in Q4.

2026 cost guidance outlook (still achievable, but geopolitical risk may force upward revision): Management believes it’s still possible to finish 2026 within the top end of existing cost guidance: $95–$101/ton, citing improved operational performance expected for the balance of the year. Big risk: if the Iran conflict and inflation impacts persist, they will likely adjust cost guidance upward. Cost cadence expectation: Q2 should look better than Q1 because diesel/supply cost spikes were partially late (late Feb–March) and fixed costs should spread over more tons as activity ramps—though they avoided quantifying exact savings early in Q2.

Price/realization dynamics & index divergence (good news for realizations; surprising spreads still distorting outcomes): Realizations improved largely due to index increases tied to Australian supply disruptions (flooding). But management emphasized unusually large divergences may persist. Key spreads (as cited): Australian PLV about $45/ton (~23%) above U.S. East Coast Low Vol; and another $36/ton (~23%) gap from U.S. East Coast Low Vol down to U.S. East Coast High Vol A. They expect to watch whether spreads normalize or remain distorted—high vol oversupply is a structural contributor to depressed high-vol pricing. Also noted: U.S. High Vol A vs Low Vol differential widened materially (from ~$5 in early 2025 to ~$38 recently).