Alcoa Corp
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Earnings Call Q1 2026
April 16, 2026 - AI Summary
Strong Q1 start; execution + higher aluminum prices offset volume/friction (financial highlights)
- Revenue: $3.2B, down 7% sequentially (mainly Alumina -33% from lower shipments, purchased/resold volumes, and Middle East/Cyclone logistics disruptions; Aluminum +3% from higher realized price and San Ciprián shipments).
- Net income (attributable): $425M vs $213M prior quarter; EPS $1.60.
- Adjusted EBITDA: $595M (+$68M QoQ), driven mainly by higher metal prices (LME and Midwest premium) with partial offset from lower shipping volumes.
Guidance / outlook: Q2 and full-year positioning remains intact, with specific cost/tail risks
- Management expects to deliver a strong Q2 and full-year 2026; Alumina segment unfavorable by ~$15M and Aluminum favorable by ~$55M (netting to a positive skew for overall EBITDA vs segment headwinds).
- Q2 alumina headwinds: guided lower bauxite offtake margins/volumes (~$10M) plus higher diesel energy costs (primarily mining diesel), with other energy/inputs lag effects.
- Pricing benefit expected in Q2: higher LME and Midwest premium and higher shipments, but also tariff cost up ~ $35M (Canadian metal into the U.S. under Section 232).
Cash flow: EBITDA strength but seasonal working capital keeps free cash flow negative; delevering via note redemption
- Cash: ended Q1 with $1.4B.
- Free cash flow: - $298M (seasonal working capital build, capex, and environmental/ARO payments).
- Adjusted net debt: $1.8B.
- Capital allocation / balance sheet: on April 14 gave notice to redeem $219M of 2028 notes in May at par, expected to reduce interest expense to ~$135M for 2026 (slightly lower).
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$4.34
89.3% downside
Current Fair Value
89.3% downsideOvervalued by 89.3% based on the discounted cash flow analysis.
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Share Statistics
| Market cap | $10.71 Billion |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value | $11.06 Billion |
| Annual dividend | $0.40 |
| Dividend yield | 1.02% |
| Earnings per Share | $4.47 |
| Beta | 1.74 |
| Outstanding Shares | 263,914,317 |
Return
| Return on Equity | 18.50% |
|---|---|
| Return on Assets | 7.49% |
| Return on Invested Capital | 10.98% |
Valuation & Multiples
| P/E Ratio | 6.7 |
|---|---|
| PEG | 6.15 |
| Price to Sales | 0.75 |
| Price to Book Ratio | 1.31 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 0.77 |
| Enterprise Value to EBIT | 6.17 |
| Enterprise Value to Net Income | 7 |
| Total Debt to Enterprise | 0.43 |
| Debt to Equity | 0.58 |
Revenue Sources
No data
Last Earnings Call
Report Date
October 28, 2026
EPS Estimate
$1.60
Consensus analyst estimateRevenue Estimate
$3.85 B
Consensus analyst estimateNext Earnings Call
Expected Date
January 21, 2027
EPS Estimate
$1.56
Consensus analyst estimateRevenue Estimate
$3.80 B
Consensus analyst estimateInstitutional Put/Call Ratio
Compares institutional put options with call options. At 0.00, the ratio is below 1, so institutions hold more calls than puts.
| Put/Call Ratio | 0.0000▼ 85.62% |
|---|---|
| Total Calls | 3,117▼ 99.97% |
| Total Puts | -▼ 100.00% |
Institutional Ownership
Holdings and activity of institutional investors.
| Ownership % | 2.01%▼ 76.52% |
|---|---|
| Total Invested | $223.91M▼ 97.93% |
| Investors Holding | 186▼ 591.00% |
About Alcoa Corp
14,600 employees
CEO: Roy Harvey
Alcoa (NYSE: AA) is a global industry leader in bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products, and is built on a foundation of strong values and operating excellence dating back more than 130 years to the world-changing discovery that made alu...