Spotify Technology S.A.
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+ FollowMarket Cap$122B
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Earnings Call Q3 2026
October 22, 2026 - AI Summary
Q3 headline performance was strong vs guidance (durability story intact)
- Revenue: ~EUR 5.0B, +14% YoY at constant currency (in line with guidance).
- MAU: 788M, in line with guidance; +11% YoY.
- Subscribers: 306M, +1M ahead of guidance (net adds across all regions).
- Premium revenue: +15% YoY, driven by subscriber growth (+9%) and ARPU expansion (+7.5%).
- Gross margin: 33%, ahead of expectations and ~+140 bps YoY.
- Free cash flow (FCF): EUR 735M in the quarter (included unfavorable timing in working capital and cash taxes).
Ads recovery is progressing (but still needs to keep compounding)
- Q3 ads growth: +9% at constant currency, accelerating from ~3% in each of Q1 and Q2.
- Drivers highlighted: automated biddable sales channel scaling, better automated attachment, and podcast sponsorship momentum.
- Outlook signal: advertising business is coming off a slower period (historically single-digit growth) with Q4 moving toward double-digit growth.
Q4 forecast and margin trajectory (key investor numbers)
- MAU: 818M forecast (+30M vs Q3).
- Subscribers: 316M forecast (net +10M).
- Total revenue: EUR 5.2B forecast in Q4.
- ARPU growth guide: +4.5% to +5% YoY, driven by recent pricing actions and Audiobooks+ add-ons, partially offset by lapping prior-year pricing actions across 150+ markets.
- Gross margin: 33.8% in Q4 (~+70 bps YoY), despite initial investments in:
- Audiobooks expansion to 180+ markets
- Spotify Partner Program expansion to 50+ markets
- Implied full-year 2026 gross margin expansion: ~+130 bps vs 2025.
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$408.41
34.9% downside
Current Fair Value
34.9% downsideOvervalued by 34.9% based on the discounted cash flow analysis.
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Share Statistics
| Market cap | $122.00 Billion |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value | $117.29 Billion |
| Earnings per Share | $10.77 |
| Beta | 1.61 |
| Outstanding Shares | 205,718,815 |
Return
| Return on Equity | 35.66% |
|---|---|
| Return on Assets | 21.75% |
| Return on Invested Capital | 31.50% |
Valuation & Multiples
| P/E Ratio | 36.82 |
|---|---|
| PEG | -4.47 |
| Price to Sales | 6.9 |
| Price to Book Ratio | 13.64 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 6.23 |
| Enterprise Value to EBIT | 36.87 |
| Enterprise Value to Net Income | 34 |
| Total Debt to Enterprise | 0.02 |
| Debt to Equity | 0.22 |
Revenue Sources
No data
Last Earnings Call
Report Date
November 3, 2026
EPS Estimate
$3.24
Consensus analyst estimateRevenue Estimate
$5.71 B
Consensus analyst estimateNext Earnings Call
Expected Date
February 9, 2027
EPS Estimate
$3.71
Consensus analyst estimateRevenue Estimate
$5.85 B
Consensus analyst estimateInstitutional Put/Call Ratio
Compares institutional put options with call options. At 83.75, the ratio is above 1, so institutions hold more puts than calls. That is a more cautious stance.
| Put/Call Ratio | 83.7500▲ 8285.22% |
|---|---|
| Total Calls | 1,200▼ 99.98% |
| Total Puts | 100,500▼ 98.09% |
Institutional Ownership
Holdings and activity of institutional investors.
| Ownership % | 3.23%▼ 62.79% |
|---|---|
| Total Invested | $3.18B▼ 94.90% |
| Investors Holding | 396▼ 947.00% |
About Spotify Technology S.A.
7,323 employees
CEO: Daniel Ek
Spotify Technology S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides audio streaming subscription services worldwide. It operates in two segments, Premium and Ad-Supported. The Premium segment offers online and offline streaming access to i...