Microsoft Corporation
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Earnings Call Q1 2027
October 28, 2026 - AI Summary
Strong results + accelerating AI-led growth (good; surprising strength in usage/agents)
- Revenue: $92.3B (+19% YoY); EPS: $4.89 (+18% reported / +19% constant currency).
- Microsoft Cloud revenue: $63.9B (+30% YoY; +31% constant currency) with growth accelerating.
- Copilot momentum: Daily users up ~50% QoQ / >5x YoY; Auto mode drives ~90% of queries; automated tasks nearly doubled since July.
- Enterprise/seat expansion: customers with >50,000 Copilot seats up >8x YoY; examples include Capgemini, HCLTech, Hitachi, Truist, UK HMRC; Volkswagen announced deployment to >330,000 employees.
- Agentic/GitHub traction: Agent-generated PRs +6x (6 months) and agents open >1/3 of all PRs; credit consumption for agentic features >doubled since usage-based billing kicked in.
Guidance for Q2: solid growth but with variability from AI supply + Azure capacity timing (good + watch-items)
- Total company revenue: $96.0B–$97.1B (+18% to +19% YoY).
- COGS: $32.7B–$32.9B (+26% to +27%); OpEx: $18.5B–$18.6B (+9%).
- Microsoft Cloud GM%: ~65% (down YoY due to Azure sales mix).
- Azure expectation: +49% to +50% constant-currency (helped by ongoing efficiency gains; partially offset by delayed 3P GPU-as-a-Service to H2).
- Big caution: Commercial bookings are expected to show volatility because of large Azure commitments signed in the prior year, so bookings growth rates are less indicative than usual.
CapEx and infrastructure: heavy spending continues; returns depend on efficiency + monetization across the stack (key risk/opportunity)
- Q1 CapEx: $45.2B, but ~3/4 is short-lived (CPUs/GPUs) and third-party capacity delays pushed some CapEx timing.
- Q2 CapEx: >$50B; FY27 CapEx expectation ~ $170B due to noted 3P capacity delays.
- Management’s core “returns” thesis: they emphasize fungible one-pool infrastructure and that leverage should come from (1) utilization/unit cost improvements *and* (2) monetizing more layers per workload across Fabric + Foundry + Copilot.
- GPU/AI efficiency progress: e.g., maia 200 delivering up to 1.7x more tokens/watt; maia 300 expected to deliver ~40% more tokens/watt vs leading GPU-based systems; also dock-to-live ~20% faster QoQ for new GB300s (where most GPU deployments are concentrated).
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$320.47
42.3% downside
Current Fair Value
42.3% downsideOvervalued by 42.3% based on the discounted cash flow analysis.
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Share Statistics
| Market cap | $4.13 Trillion |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value | $4.31 Trillion |
| Annual dividend | $3.64 |
| Dividend yield | 0.70% |
| Earnings per Share | $18 |
| Beta | 1.1 |
| Outstanding Shares | 7,426,000,000 |
Return
| Return on Equity | 30.23% |
|---|---|
| Return on Assets | 17.64% |
| Return on Invested Capital | 28.66% |
Valuation & Multiples
| P/E Ratio | 27.18 |
|---|---|
| PEG | 86.75 |
| Price to Sales | 12.63 |
| Price to Book Ratio | 9.42 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 12.98 |
| Enterprise Value to EBIT | 25.49 |
| Enterprise Value to Net Income | 32 |
| Total Debt to Enterprise | 0.05 |
| Debt to Equity | 0.46 |
Revenue Sources
No data
Last Earnings Call
Report Date
November 4, 2026
EPS Estimate
$4.63
Consensus analyst estimateRevenue Estimate
$89.72 B
Consensus analyst estimateNext Earnings Call
Expected Date
January 26, 2027
EPS Estimate
$4.84
Consensus analyst estimateRevenue Estimate
$95.63 B
Consensus analyst estimateInstitutional Put/Call Ratio
Compares institutional put options with call options. At 6.78, the ratio is above 1, so institutions hold more puts than calls. That is a more cautious stance.
| Put/Call Ratio | 6.7752▲ 632.17% |
|---|---|
| Total Calls | 353,008▼ 99.87% |
| Total Puts | 2,391,704▼ 98.03% |
Institutional Ownership
Holdings and activity of institutional investors.
| Ownership % | 4.12%▼ 70.55% |
|---|---|
| Total Invested | $156.46B▼ 92.44% |
| Investors Holding | 2,967▼ 3630.00% |
About Microsoft Corporation
166,475 employees
CEO: Satya Nadella
Microsoft enables digital transformation for the era of an intelligent cloud and an intelligent edge. Its mission is to empower every person and every organization on the planet to achieve more.