Moderna Inc

Q2 2026 financials: weak headline profitability but improved cost discipline - Revenue $145M, +2% YoY, above the guided range from the prior quarter call. - Net loss $782M (EPS -$1.97), improving $43M (+5%) YoY. - Cost of sales $93M (-22% YoY) driven by lower unutilized manufacturing capacity and improved efficiency. - R&D $651M (-7% YoY) due to wind-down of several late-stage programs; SG&A $216M (-6% YoY) via continued cost discipline. - Cash & investments $6.9B (down from $7.5B at end of Q1), mainly from ongoing R&D investment and cash outflow for litigation.

2026 outlook/forecast framework reaffirmed, with a more favorable cost outlook - Company reiterates revenue growth up to ~10% in 2026, with an expected ~50/50 split between U.S. and international full-year. - Quarter/seasonality: Q3 expected to be ~55% of second-half revenue. - Guidance assumptions include potential future COVID vaccination rate declines and no revenue assumed from mFLUSIVA and mCOMBRIAX. - Costs: lowering cost of sales by $0.1B to $1.7B (includes $0.9B litigation settlement expense) and lowering R&D by $0.1B to $2.9B. - Cash cost discipline: expects ~$4.0B of cash costs (excluding certain non-cash items), and overall aims for “new lowered cash cost guidance” around $4B. - Liquidity: cash & investments projected $4.7B–$5.2B end of 2026; does not assume additional draw from remaining $0.9B undrawn credit facility.

Upcoming regulatory/commercial catalysts (big opportunities) - Seasonal flu mRNA-1010: received positive VRBPAC recommendation; milestone ahead of Aug 5 PDUFA for potential U.S. approval. Company also expects approvals/reviews in EU/Canada/Australia. - Norovirus mRNA-1403: interim analysis did not meet early success criteria; company is preparing to enroll an additional cohort in Phase III (still blinded)—investors should expect more uncertainty on effect size/timing. - Respiratory and platform expansion: mRNA products are expanding internationally via approvals/label expansions (e.g., mNEXSPIKE ongoing uptake strength; mRESVIA label expansion milestones). - Business emphasis on building toward the 2026–2027 vaccination season and strengthening commercial footprint via long-term partnerships.