Carnival plc

Q3 2026 results: strong beat; EPS/output up on revenue + disciplined cost + better fuel consumption - Company reported record revenues, yields, and net income. - Net income exceeded June guidance by ~$100M / ~$0.08 EPS. - Driver mix vs guidance: - Revenues/yields: yields +~2.5% YoY, about ~1.2 percentage points above June guidance due to close-in demand and strong onboard spending (~$0.05 EPS contribution). - Costs (ex-fuel): cruise costs per ALBD +1.8% YoY, 100 bps better than guidance (cost discipline; ~$0.02 EPS). - Fuel consumption efficiency: delivered ~4% YoY reduction in fuel consumption (on top of prior-year improvements; ~$0.01 EPS).

Updated full-year 2026 outlook (raised vs June): EPS now $2.24; operational improvements offset higher fuel - Updated guidance: >$150M net income improvement vs June guidance. - Despite higher fuel prices, they expect improvements to more than offset the fuel headwind: - Fuel headwind: ~$150M impact from increased fuel prices. - Offsetting improvements: yields + cruise costs (ex-fuel) + fuel consumption totaling >$150M. - Forecast details: - FY 2026 yield growth: ~+2.3% YoY (about 0.5 point better than June). - Q4 2026 yields: ~+1.7% YoY (about 0.75 point better than implied June). - Cruise costs (ex-fuel) FY 2026: ~+2.2% YoY (better than June). - Fuel consumption: expected ~3 points better than expected; fuel consumption efficiency helps mitigate fuel price risk. - Fuel volatility mitigation claim: they cite 26% lower fuel consumption per ALBD since 2019; at September guidance fuel prices, savings from lower consumption are ~$750M.

2027 demand/booking outlook: broadly strong with residual Q1 drag; Europe strength; capacity growth modest - 2027 is ~0.5% capacity growth vs 2026. - Booking position: - “Half booked” already with record occupancy and pricing. - Booking disruption earlier in the year carried into Q1 2027, and management still expects residual impact in Q1, but Q1 bookings have rebounded meaningfully over the past ~3 months. - Europe pivot: Europe ties Caribbean as largest deployment region in 2027 (each ~34% of mix) for the first time; Northern Europe coolcation demand called out (fjords, outdoor activities, Northern Lights). - Onboard spending: they reported no slowdown—onboard spending continued to accelerate (consumer strength remains).