ASML Holding NV - New York Shares
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Earnings Call Q3 2026
October 14, 2026 - AI Summary
Record Q3 performance; strong profitability and cash generation (good/surprising)
- Total net sales: €11.7B, a record and toward the high end of guidance.
- Gross margin: 57.5%, above guidance.
- Net system sales: €8.4B (includes €4.1B EUV: 1 High-NA EUV system + €4.3B non-EUV).
- Installed base management (IBMM): €3.3B, ~€400M above guidance, driven by demand for productivity upgrades (EUV + DUV).
- Net income: €5.0B; EPS: €12.95 (includes ~€500M fair-value uplift from Mistral AI stake).
- Free cash flow (FCF): €11.4B; cash/investments: €12.7B.
Clear forward outlook: Q4 and full-year 2026 growth remains strong (good)
- Q4 2026 guidance: Net sales €14.2B–€15.2B, gross margin ~57%, IBMM ~€3.7B, R&D ~€1.2B, SG&A ~€400M.
- Full-year 2026 guidance: Net sales €44B–€45B, gross margin ~56%.
- YoY sales growth expected ~36% (management framing): >45% growth in EUV, ~20% growth in non‑EUV system sales, ~50% growth in IBMM.
- End-market mix expectation: Logic systems ~+10%, Memory systems ~+75% (capacity expansion + increased EUV adoption on advanced DRAM nodes).
Capacity constraints are the dominant “challenge,” but ASML sees demand still outpacing supply (good demand signals; risk of execution)
- Customers indicate they expect demand outpacing supply through at least 2028, driving accelerated capacity build-out.
- ASML is ramping capacity aggressively; management said it has no ceiling from Zeiss/VDL today and is managing supply-chain rampability.
- Order intake/contracting behavior: management emphasized POs involve real commitments (down payments that “hurt”) and expects demand to be “real,” not just speculative—but acknowledged suppliers must sustain steep ramp rates.
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$501.75
66.5% downside
Current Fair Value
66.5% downsideOvervalued by 66.5% based on the discounted cash flow analysis.
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Share Statistics
| Market cap | $573.27 Billion |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value | $567.20 Billion |
| Annual dividend | $9.32 |
| Dividend yield | 0.57% |
| Earnings per Share | $24.73 |
| Beta | 1.3 |
| Outstanding Shares | 383,100,000 |
Return
| Return on Equity | 57.60% |
|---|---|
| Return on Assets | 21.55% |
| Return on Invested Capital | 42.00% |
Valuation & Multiples
| P/E Ratio | 40.34 |
|---|---|
| PEG | 30.22 |
| Price to Sales | 15.12 |
| Price to Book Ratio | 26.25 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 14.85 |
| Enterprise Value to EBIT | 39.63 |
| Enterprise Value to Net Income | 44 |
| Total Debt to Enterprise | 0 |
| Debt to Equity | 0.09 |
Revenue Sources
No data
Last Earnings Call
Report Date
October 21, 2026
EPS Estimate
$9.14
Consensus analyst estimateRevenue Estimate
$12.38 B
Consensus analyst estimateNext Earnings Call
Expected Date
January 27, 2027
EPS Estimate
$16.61
Consensus analyst estimateRevenue Estimate
$16.34 B
Consensus analyst estimateInstitutional Put/Call Ratio
Compares institutional put options with call options. At 4.59, the ratio is above 1, so institutions hold more puts than calls. That is a more cautious stance.
| Put/Call Ratio | 4.5897▲ 332.17% |
|---|---|
| Total Calls | 3,900▼ 99.91% |
| Total Puts | 17,900▼ 99.68% |
Institutional Ownership
Holdings and activity of institutional investors.
| Ownership % | 1.03%▼ 18.84% |
|---|---|
| Total Invested | $6.79B▼ 95.48% |
| Investors Holding | 1,044▼ 1580.00% |
About ASML Holding NV
44,209 employees
CEO: Peter Wennink
ASML Holding N.V., established in 1984 and headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands, is a leading provider of sophisticated equipment for semiconductor manufacturing. The company innovates, engineers, markets, sells, and services inte...