{"id":63,"date":"2021-09-24T12:16:16","date_gmt":"2021-09-24T12:16:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cheaperthanguru.com\/blog\/?p=63"},"modified":"2021-09-28T09:17:46","modified_gmt":"2021-09-28T09:17:46","slug":"evergrande-crisis-explained-simply","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stockcircle.com\/blog\/evergrande-crisis-explained-simply\/","title":{"rendered":"Evergrande Crisis Explained Simply | Will it Cause a Stock Market Crash?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 18pt;\"><strong>Will the Evergrande Crisis in China Cause another Financial Crisis?<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;\">One of China&#8217;s biggest property developers is in trouble and the company&#8217;s called Evergrande. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;\">Evergrande is saddled with<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"> 300 billion dollars in debt<\/span> and has struggled to make repayments, thus the creditors are circling like vultures.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">According to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.evergrande.com\/ir\/en\/corpinfo.asp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Evergrandes official website:<\/a> \u00a0<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Evergrandes name comes from &#8220;Ever&#8221; for never ceasing existence &amp; &#8220;grande&#8221; for universal growth. <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Could this name become an Ironic obituary?<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;\">\u00a0Evergrande has over 1,300 real estate projects in more than 280 cities. According to CNBC, China Real Estate makes up approximately 25% of the Chinese economy,\u00a0 thus it&#8217;s major deal and a collapse could ripple the world economy.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Is Evergrande similar to Lehman Brothers?\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;\"> The collapse of Lehman brothers in 2008 was a major catalyst which caused the Financial crisis &amp; stock market crash. Lehman filed for bankruptcy with 619 billion dollars in debt.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;\">There&#8217;s a lot of fear in the market right now because people are seeing this issue with this major property developer in China &amp; drawing Synergies.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;\">The Good News is Lehman Brothers is <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>VERY DIFFERENT<\/strong><\/span> from Evergrande, there are a few main distinctions:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;\">Lehman Brothers held financial assets (mortgage-backed securities)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;\">Lehman Debt at Bankruptcy ($619 Billion)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;\">Lehman in the US.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;\">Evergrande in China (Government has vastly more power).<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;\">Evergrande owns <strong>real land assets.\u00a0 (Real Estate)<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;\">Evergrande Debt ($300 Billion) (half of Lehman)<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">The Mortgage Backed Securities which Lehman held was given to many people on what&#8217;s called &#8220;ninja loans&#8221; no income no job.<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"> These were wrongly rated by Credit agencies as AAA (investment Grade). More on this in our Section on <a href=\"https:\/\/cheaperthanguru.com\/blog\/michael-burry-shorting-stocks\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Michael Burry &amp; the Big Short<\/a>. <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\">However <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Evergrande owns real land in China,<\/span> so i do believe Evergrand is more secure than Lehman Brothers.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/t9crXZV_AVo\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: georgia, palatino, serif;\"><strong>Why is Evergrande in Trouble?\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Evergrande has been pursuing a high growth strategy of piling on massive debts to build property for china&#8217;s urbanizing middle classes.<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"> It&#8217;s strategy has worked in the past because <a href=\"https:\/\/www.worldometers.info\/world-population\/china-population\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">China&#8217;s population<\/a> was growing massively, but now that growth has started to flatten.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.statista.com\/statistics\/263765\/total-population-of-china\/\" rel=\"nofollow\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"width: 100%; height: auto !important; max-width: 1000px; -ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;\" src=\"https:\/\/www.statista.com\/graphic\/1\/263765\/total-population-of-china.jpg\" alt=\"Statistic: Total population of China from 1980 to 2020 with forecasts until 2026 (in millions) | Statista\" \/><\/a><br \/>\nFind more statistics at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.statista.com\" rel=\"nofollow\">Statista<\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;\">During China&#8217;s growth phase, Evergrande&#8217;s share price soared by<span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"> 410% between 2017 and 2020.<\/span> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;\">Evergrande even built a soccer stadium &amp; developed a national team to fill that stadium. <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;\">They also have the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.archdaily.com\/939208\/the-worlds-largest-soccer-stadium-breaks-ground-in-guangzhou\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Worlds Largest Soccer stadium<\/a> currently in development.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_64\" style=\"width: 790px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-64\" class=\"wp-image-64 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/cheaperthanguru.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/ST_20200427_ANCHINA_5626901.jpg\" alt=\"The New $1.7 Billion Lotus shaped stadium will be the largest in the world. As the stadium will include 100,000 seats and 162 VIP boxes, it will break the capacity record of Camp Nou stadium in Spain, home to FC Barcelona. Guangzhou, China. Source: Evergrande. \" width=\"780\" height=\"520\" srcset=\"https:\/\/stockcircle.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/ST_20200427_ANCHINA_5626901.jpg 780w, https:\/\/stockcircle.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/ST_20200427_ANCHINA_5626901-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/stockcircle.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/ST_20200427_ANCHINA_5626901-768x512.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 780px) 100vw, 780px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-64\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><span style=\"font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;\">The New $1.7 Billion Lotus shaped stadium will be the largest in the world. As the stadium will include 100,000 seats and 162 VIP boxes, it will break the capacity record of Camp Nou stadium in Spain, home to FC Barcelona. Guangzhou, China. Source: Evergrande. <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.evergrande.com\/ir\/en\/corpinfo.asp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Evergrandes official website<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/p><\/div>\n<h3><span style=\"font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><b>Debt Fuelling Evergrandes Growth?<\/b><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Evergrande has built up $300 Billion in debt to fuel it&#8217;s growth.<\/span> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">R<\/span><\/strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">atings agencies such as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fitchratings.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">fitch<\/a> have downgraded Evergrande&#8217;s debt earlier this month, saying a <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">&#8220;default was probable&#8221; <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;\">Markets are pricing in this default, thus Evergrandes bonds are trading around 30 cents to the dollar and the share price has fallen 48% in September and Chinese regulators have even reported recently to major banks in china that evergrand will not be making upcoming loan payments.<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_65\" style=\"width: 1027px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-65\" class=\"wp-image-65 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/cheaperthanguru.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/chart-evergrande-share-price-decline-2021.jpg\" alt=\"chart evergrande share price decline 2021\" width=\"1017\" height=\"568\" srcset=\"https:\/\/stockcircle.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/chart-evergrande-share-price-decline-2021.jpg 1017w, https:\/\/stockcircle.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/chart-evergrande-share-price-decline-2021-300x168.jpg 300w, https:\/\/stockcircle.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/chart-evergrande-share-price-decline-2021-768x429.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1017px) 100vw, 1017px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-65\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><span style=\"font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;\">chart evergrande share price decline 2021, Source: Morning Star.<\/span><\/p><\/div>\n<h3><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 18pt;\"><strong>Will this cause another Financial Crisis?<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: georgia, palatino, serif;\">A financial Crisis like 2008 seems unlikely &amp; this is &#8220;expected&#8221; to be an isolated incident in China.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: georgia, palatino, serif;\"><a style=\"color: #000000;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/china\/bofa-cuts-chinas-gdp-growth-forecast-next-3-years-2021-09-21\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u00a0Bank of America<\/a> stated they have minimal exposure to china &amp; any issues in the Chinese market will stop at the U.S borders. However, they did cut their growth forecast for china.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: georgia, palatino, serif;\"><a style=\"color: #000000;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2021\/09\/24\/lagarde-europe-has-limited-direct-exposure-to-evergrande-debt-crisis.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Christine Lagarde<\/a> (President of the European Central Bank). Stated Europe has \u2018limited\u2019 direct exposure to Evergrande\u2019s debt crisis. According to CNBC.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: georgia, palatino, serif;\">This is a situation to watch as it unfolds but so far all signs point to an isolated incident in China, which would avoid the &#8220;doomsday scenario&#8221;.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Will the Evergrande Crisis in China Cause another Financial Crisis? One of China&#8217;s biggest property developers is in trouble and the company&#8217;s called Evergrande. Evergrande is saddled with 300 billion dollars in debt and has struggled to make repayments, thus the creditors are circling like vultures. According to Evergrandes official website: \u00a0Evergrandes name comes from [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":66,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[13,9,14],"class_list":["post-63","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock-market","tag-evergrande","tag-stock-market","tag-stock-market-crash"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v17.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Evergrande Crisis Explained Simply | Will it Cause a Stock Market Crash? - Stockcircle Articles<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Evergrande Crisis Explained Simply, Will Evergrande cause a stock market crash? 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Next Lehman Brothers?","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/stockcircle.com\/blog\/evergrande-crisis-explained-simply\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/stockcircle.com\/blog\/evergrande-crisis-explained-simply\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/stockcircle.com\/blog\/evergrande-crisis-explained-simply\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/stockcircle.com\/blog\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Evergrande Crisis Explained Simply | Will it Cause a Stock Market Crash?"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/stockcircle.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/4515b5c0ed6fdf1b84d720acecb0effe","name":"Ben","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","@id":"https:\/\/stockcircle.com\/blog\/#personlogo","inLanguage":"en-US","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/c65964c455f069d258b7ffbbc5345adad3eb8dff6fbed47b52242f5b1f524284?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/c65964c455f069d258b7ffbbc5345adad3eb8dff6fbed47b52242f5b1f524284?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Ben"},"description":"Ben is the Founder of Motivation 2 Invest &amp; a Strategic Partner of Invest with Legends (Cheaper than Guru). Ben focuses on Deep Dive Investing research &amp; Stock Analysis. He is a combination of a Value &amp; Growth Investor and analyses equities mainly in the technology sector. In addition, Ben has Interviewed various company CEO's, Hedge Fund Managers &amp; other successful investors. This is documented on his thriving Youtube Channel Motivation 2 invest (3 Million views &amp; counting) be sure to check out his channel &amp; Subscribe : https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/c\/Motivation2Invest\/videos He has read over 655+ books on investing, analysed over 700 Company stocks &amp; has a 1st Class Degree in Electrical &amp; Electronic Engineering. 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